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      Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards 

      Vulnerability to Heat Waves, Floods, and Landslides in Mountainous Terrain

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          The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves.

          Instrumental observations and reconstructions of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a pronounced warming during the past approximately 150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the occurrence of heatwaves. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small. Here we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe.
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            The Assessment of Sultriness. Part I: A Temperature-Humidity Index Based on Human Physiology and Clothing Science

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              An exposure assessment study of ambient heat exposure in an elderly population in Baltimore, Maryland.

              Because of concern for heat-related mortality in vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly, practical epidemiologic methods are needed for the assessment of ambient heat exposure on individuals. We used a personal monitor to measure body temperature, ambient temperature, heart rate, and activity level of 42 elderly residents of Baltimore, Maryland, in the summer months of 2000. Each participant was monitored for approximately 48 hr to examine the association between ambient temperature and body temperature, using regression methods that account for highly correlated data within individuals. We also examined the associations of Baltimore temperature data with personal ambient temperature and body temperature. An average 0.15 degrees F [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.05-0.25] increase in median body temperature was found for each 1 degrees F increase in median ambient temperature. Heart rate and activity level were not found to be related to body temperature or ambient temperature, although heart rate was associated with activity level. Median heart rate increased an average of 0.17 (95% CI, 0.13-0.21) beats per minute for every unit increase in median activity level. Personal ambient temperature was slightly lower than Baltimore temperatures, whereas an association was not found between body temperature and Baltimore temperatures. The protocol established in this study for heat exposure assessment could feasibly be applied on a larger scale.
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                Book Chapter
                2014
                : 179-201
                10.1016/B978-0-12-410528-7.00008-4
                32492d80-e2d6-44c5-96a4-178b35324b98
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