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      Advances in Decision Analysis 

      The Engineering Risk-Analysis Method and Some Applications

      edited-book
      Cambridge University Press

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          Judgment under Uncertainty : Heuristics and Biases

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            Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment

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              The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems.

              Safety assessments of technological systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical process facilities, and hazardous waste repositories, require the investigation of the occurrence and consequences of rare events. The subjectivistic (Bayesian) theory of probability is the appropriate framework within which expert opinions, which are essential to the quantification process, can be combined with experimental results and statistical observations to produce quantitative measures of the risks from these systems. A distinction is made between uncertainties in physical models and state-of-knowledge uncertainties about the parameters and assumptions of these models. The proper role of past and future relative frequencies and several issues associated with elicitation and use of expert opinions are discussed.
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                Book Chapter
                July 23 2007
                : 302-324
                10.1017/CBO9780511611308.017
                e1f054fe-1dea-4b1d-84fb-3c710edc1c19
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