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      The public health impact of Alzheimer's disease, 2000-2050: potential implication of treatment advances.

      Annual review of public health
      Alzheimer Disease, drug therapy, epidemiology, therapy, Disease Progression, Forecasting, Health Care Costs, Health Services Needs and Demand, trends, Humans, Prevalence, Public Health, Treatment Outcome, United States

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          Abstract

          Recent developments in basic research suggest that therapeutic breakthroughs may occur in Alzheimer's disease treatment over the coming decades. To model the potential magnitude and nature of the effect of these advances, historical data from congestive heart failure and Parkinson's disease were used. Projections indicate that therapies which delay disease onset will markedly reduce overall disease prevalence, whereas therapies to treat existing disease will alter the proportion of cases that are mild as opposed to moderate/severe. The public health impact of such changes would likely involve both the amount and type of health services needed. Particularly likely to arise are new forms of outpatient services, such as disease-specific clinics and centers. None of our models predicts less than a threefold rise in the total number of persons with Alzheimer's disease between 2000 and 2050. Therefore, Alzheimer's care is likely to remain a major public health problem during the coming decades.

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          Most cited references29

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          Immunization with amyloid-beta attenuates Alzheimer-disease-like pathology in the PDAPP mouse.

          Amyloid-beta peptide (Abeta) seems to have a central role in the neuropathology of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Familial forms of the disease have been linked to mutations in the amyloid precursor protein (APP) and the presenilin genes. Disease-linked mutations in these genes result in increased production of the 42-amino-acid form of the peptide (Abeta42), which is the predominant form found in the amyloid plaques of Alzheimer's disease. The PDAPP transgenic mouse, which overexpresses mutant human APP (in which the amino acid at position 717 is phenylalanine instead of the normal valine), progressively develops many of the neuropathological hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease in an age- and brain-region-dependent manner. In the present study, transgenic animals were immunized with Abeta42, either before the onset of AD-type neuropathologies (at 6 weeks of age) or at an older age (11 months), when amyloid-beta deposition and several of the subsequent neuropathological changes were well established. We report that immunization of the young animals essentially prevented the development of beta-amyloid-plaque formation, neuritic dystrophy and astrogliosis. Treatment of the older animals also markedly reduced the extent and progression of these AD-like neuropathologies. Our results raise the possibility that immunization with amyloid-beta may be effective in preventing and treating Alzheimer's disease.
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            Survival after the onset of congestive heart failure in Framingham Heart Study subjects.

            Relatively limited epidemiological data are available regarding the prognosis of congestive heart failure (CHF) and temporal changes in survival after its onset in a population-based setting. Proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the effects of selected clinical variables on survival after the onset of CHF among 652 members of the Framingham Heart Study (51% men; mean age, 70.0 +/- 10.8 years) who developed CHF between 1948 and 1988. Subjects were older at the diagnosis of heart failure in the later decades of this study (mean age at heart failure diagnosis, 57.3 +/- 7.6 years in the 1950s, 65.9 +/- 7.9 years in the 1960s, 71.6 +/- 9.4 years in the 1970s, and 76.4 +/- 10.0 years in the 1980s; p < 0.001). Median survival after the onset of heart failure was 1.7 years in men and 3.2 years in women. Overall, 1-year and 5-year survival rates were 57% and 25% in men and 64% and 38% in women, respectively. Survival was better in women than in men (age-adjusted hazards ratio for mortality, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.54-0.77). Mortality increased with advancing age in both sexes (hazards ratio for men, 1.27 per decade of age; 95% CI, 1.09-1.47; hazards ratio for women, 1.61 per decade of age; 95% CI, 1.37-1.90). Adjusting for age, there was no significant temporal change in the prognosis of CHF during the 40 years of observation (hazards ratio for men for mortality, 1.08 per calendar decade; 95% CI, 0.92-1.27; hazards ratio for women for mortality, 1.02 per calendar decade; 95% CI, 0.83-1.26). CHF remains highly lethal, with better prognosis in women and in younger individuals. Advances in the treatment of hypertension, myocardial ischemia, and valvular heart disease during the four decades of observation did not translate into appreciable improvements in overall survival after the onset of CHF in this large, unselected population.
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              A beta peptide vaccination prevents memory loss in an animal model of Alzheimer's disease.

              Vaccinations with amyloid-beta peptide (A beta) can dramatically reduce amyloid deposition in a transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer's disease. To determine if the vaccinations had deleterious or beneficial functional consequences, we tested eight months of A beta vaccination in a different transgenic model for Alzheimer's disease in which mice develop learning deficits as amyloid accumulates. Here we show that vaccination with A beta protects transgenic mice from the learning and age-related memory deficits that normally occur in this mouse model for Alzheimer's disease. During testing for potential deleterious effects of the vaccine, all mice performed superbly on the radial-arm water-maze test of working memory. Later, at an age when untreated transgenic mice show memory deficits, the A beta-vaccinated transgenic mice showed cognitive performance superior to that of the control transgenic mice and, ultimately, performed as well as nontransgenic mice. The A beta-vaccinated mice also had a partial reduction in amyloid burden at the end of the study. This therapeutic approach may thus prevent and, possibly, treat Alzheimer's dementia.
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