Predicting death from kala-azar: construction, development, and validation of a score set and accompanying software

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Abstract INTRODUCTION Early identification of patients at higher risk of progressing to severe disease and death is crucial for implementing therapeutic and preventive measures; this could reduce the morbidity and mortality from kala-azar. We describe a score set composed of four scales in addition to software for quick assessment of the probability of death from kala-azar at the point of care. METHODS: Data from 883 patients diagnosed between September 2005 and August 2008 were used to derive the score set, and data from 1,031 patients diagnosed between September 2008 and November 2013 were used to validate the models. Stepwise logistic regression analyses were used to derive the optimal multivariate prediction models. Model performance was assessed by its discriminatory accuracy. A computational specialist system (Kala-Cal(r)) was developed to speed up the calculation of the probability of death based on clinical scores. RESULTS: The clinical prediction score showed high discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] 0.90) for distinguishing death from survival for children ≤2 years old. Performance improved after adding laboratory variables (AUC 0.93). The clinical score showed equivalent discrimination (AUC 0.89) for older children and adults, which also improved after including laboratory data (AUC 0.92). The score set also showed a high, although lower, discrimination when applied to the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: This score set and Kala-Cal(r) software may help identify individuals with the greatest probability of death. The associated software may speed up the calculation of the probability of death based on clinical scores and assist physicians in decision-making.

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The relationship between leishmaniasis and AIDS: the second 10 years.

Jorge Alvar, Pilar Aparicio, Abraham Aseffa … (2008)

To date, most Leishmania and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection cases reported to WHO come from Southern Europe. Up to the year 2001, nearly 2,000 cases of coinfection were identified, of which 90% were from Spain, Italy, France, and Portugal. However, these figures are misleading because they do not account for the large proportion of cases in many African and Asian countries that are missed due to a lack of diagnostic facilities and poor reporting systems. Most cases of coinfection in the Americas are reported in Brazil, where the incidence of leishmaniasis has spread in recent years due to overlap with major areas of HIV transmission. In some areas of Africa, the number of coinfection cases has increased dramatically due to social phenomena such as mass migration and wars. In northwest Ethiopia, up to 30% of all visceral leishmaniasis patients are also infected with HIV. In Asia, coinfections are increasingly being reported in India, which also has the highest global burden of leishmaniasis and a high rate of resistance to antimonial drugs. Based on the previous experience of 20 years of coinfection in Europe, this review focuses on the management of Leishmania-HIV-coinfected patients in low-income countries where leishmaniasis is endemic.

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Post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.

E Zijlstra, A. M. Musa, E A G Khalil … (2003)

Post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a complication of visceral leishmaniasis (VL); it is characterised by a macular, maculopapular, and nodular rash in a patient who has recovered from VL and who is otherwise well. The rash usually starts around the mouth from where it spreads to other parts of the body depending on severity. It is mainly seen in Sudan and India where it follows treated VL in 50% and 5-10% of cases, respectively. Thus, it is largely restricted to areas where Leishmania donovani is the causative parasite. The interval at which PKDL follows VL is 0-6 months in Sudan and 2-3 years in India. PKDL probably has an important role in interepidemic periods of VL, acting as a reservoir for parasites. There is increasing evidence that the pathogenesis is largely immunologically mediated; high concentrations of interleukin 10 in the peripheral blood of VL patients predict the development of PKDL. During VL, interferon gamma is not produced by peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). After treatment of VL, PBMC start producing interferon gamma, which coincides with the appearance of PKDL lesions due to interferon-gamma-producing cells causing skin inflammation as a reaction to persisting parasites in the skin. Diagnosis is mainly clinical, but parasites can be seen by microscopy in smears with limited sensitivity. PCR and monoclonal antibodies may detect parasites in more than 80% of cases. Serological tests and the leishmanin skin test are of limited value. Treatment is always needed in Indian PKDL; in Sudan most cases will self cure but severe and chronic cases are treated. Sodium stibogluconate is given at 20 mg/kg for 2 months in Sudan and for 4 months in India. Liposomal amphotericine B seems effective; newer compounds such as miltefosine that can be administered orally or topically are of major potential interest. Although research has brought many new insights in pathogenesis and management of PKDL, several issues in particular in relation to control remain unsolved and deserve urgent attention.

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Epidemiology of visceral leishmaniasis

Paul Ready (2014)

Leishmania species are the causative agents of leishmaniasis, a neglected tropical disease. These parasitic protozoans are usually transmitted between vertebrate hosts by the bite of blood sucking female phlebotomine sand flies. This review focuses on the two parasites causing most human visceral leishmaniasis (VL), which leads to substantial health problems or death for up to 400,000 people per year. Except for travel cases, Leishmania donovani infections are restricted to the (sub-)tropics of Asia and Africa, where transmission is mostly anthroponotic, while Leishmania infantum occurs in the drier parts of Latin America as well as in the Mediterranean climate regions of the Old World, with the domestic dog serving as the main reservoir host. The prevalence of VL caused by L. infantum has been declining where living standards have improved. In contrast, infections of L. donovani continue to cause VL epidemics in rural areas on the Indian subcontinent and in East Africa. The current review compares and contrasts these continental differences and suggests priorities for basic and applied research that might improve VL control. Transmission cycles, pathogenesis, diagnosis, treatment and prognosis, prevention (including vector control), surveillance, transmission modeling, and international control efforts are all reviewed. Most case detection is passive, and so routine surveillance does not usually permit accurate assessments of any changes in the incidence of VL. Also, it is not usually possible to estimate the human inoculation rate of parasites by the sand fly vectors because of the limitations of survey methods. Consequently, transmission modeling rarely passes beyond the proof of principle stage, and yet it is required to help develop risk factor analysis for control programs. Anthroponotic VL should be susceptible to elimination by rapid case detection and treatment combined with local vector control, and one of the most important interventions may well be socioeconomic development.