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      How did the economic recession (2008-2010) influence traffic fatalities in OECD-countries?

          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          This paper presents analyses of how the economic recession that started in 2008 has influenced the number of traffic fatalities in OECD countries. Previous studies of the relationship between economic recessions and changes in the number of traffic fatalities are reviewed. Based on these studies, a causal diagram of the relationship between changes of the business cycle and changes in the number of traffic fatalities is proposed. This causal model is tested empirically by means of multivariate analyses and analyses of accident statistics for Great Britain and Sweden. Economic recession, as indicated both by slower growth of, or decline of gross national product, and by increased unemployment is associated with an accelerated decline in the number of traffic fatalities, i.e. a larger decline than the long-term trend that is normal in OECD countries. The principal mechanisms bringing this about are a disproportionate reduction of driving among high-risk drivers, in particular young drivers and a reduction of fatality rate per kilometre of travel, probably attributable to changes in road user behaviour that are only partly observable. The total number of vehicle kilometres of travel did not change very much as a result of the recession. The paper is based on an ITF-report that presents the analyses in greater detail.

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          Most cited references51

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          The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation

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            Are Recessions Good for Your Health?

            C. Ruhm (2000)
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              Alcohol policies and highway vehicle fatalities.

              This study investigates the impact of beer taxes and a variety of alcohol-control policies on motor vehicle fatality rates. Special attention is paid to omitted variables biases resulting from failing to adequately control for grassroots efforts to reduce drunk driving, the enactment of other laws which simultaneously operate to reduce highway fatalities, and the economic conditions existing at the time the legislation is passed. In the preferred models, most of the regulations have little or no impact on traffic mortality. By contrast, higher beer taxes are associated with reductions in crash deaths and this result is relatively robust across specifications.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Accid Anal Prev
                Accident; analysis and prevention
                Elsevier BV
                1879-2057
                0001-4575
                May 2017
                : 102
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. Electronic address: fred.wegman@swov.nl.
                [2 ] University College London, United Kingdom.
                [3 ] Technical University of Munich, Germany.
                [4 ] Ifsttar, France.
                [5 ] Institute of Transport Economics, Norway.
                [6 ] Department for Transport, United Kingdom.
                [7 ] W2Economics, The Netherlands.
                Article
                S0001-4575(17)30049-0
                10.1016/j.aap.2017.01.022
                28259828
                021465dd-7d1d-4e95-904a-bf83806779e8
                History

                Economic recession,Literature review,Multivariate analyses,Traffic fatalities

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