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      Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change.

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          Abstract

          Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes.

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          Most cited references31

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          Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch.

          Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change. Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production. Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.
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            Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming

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              Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change.

              Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Glob Chang Biol
                Global change biology
                Wiley
                1365-2486
                1354-1013
                Apr 2016
                : 22
                : 4
                Affiliations
                [1 ] The Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia.
                [2 ] Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada, V6T1Z4.
                [3 ] CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, EcoSciences Precinct, Dutton Park, Brisbane, Qld, 4102, Australia.
                [4 ] School of Science and Engineering, University of Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, Qld, 4558, Australia.
                [5 ] Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98115-1800, USA.
                [6 ] Department of Ecology, Marine Institute, Scottish Association for Marine Science, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, UK.
                [7 ] Red Sea Research Center (RSRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia.
                [8 ] National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State St. Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA, 93101, USA.
                [9 ] Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA.
                [10 ] Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, SL57PY, UK.
                [11 ] School of Biological Sciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia.
                [12 ] Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Drakes Circus, Plymouth, Devon, PL4 8AA, UK.
                [13 ] Department of Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712, USA.
                [14 ] School of Mathematics and Physics, Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia.
                Article
                10.1111/gcb.13184
                26661135
                9ca4d7a3-60a0-414b-90b8-52183324cf9d
                History

                global warming,marine ecosystem,meta-analysis,publication bias,range edge,range shift,season,time series,tropics,fishing

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