Multiple nutrient stresses at intersecting Pacific Ocean biomes detected by protein biomarkers

We present a statistical model to estimate the accuracy of peptide assignments to tandem mass (MS/MS) spectra made by database search applications such as SEQUEST. Employing the expectation maximization algorithm, the analysis learns to distinguish correct from incorrect database search results, computing probabilities that peptide assignments to spectra are correct based upon database search scores and the number of tryptic termini of peptides. Using SEQUEST search results for spectra generated from a sample of known protein components, we demonstrate that the computed probabilities are accurate and have high power to discriminate between correctly and incorrectly assigned peptides. This analysis makes it possible to filter large volumes of MS/MS database search results with predictable false identification error rates and can serve as a common standard by which the results of different research groups are compared.

The Cyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus account for a substantial fraction of marine primary production. Here, we present quantitative niche models for these lineages that assess present and future global abundances and distributions. These niche models are the result of neural network, nonparametric, and parametric analyses, and they rely on >35,000 discrete observations from all major ocean regions. The models assess cell abundance based on temperature and photosynthetically active radiation, but the individual responses to these environmental variables differ for each lineage. The models estimate global biogeographic patterns and seasonal variability of cell abundance, with maxima in the warm oligotrophic gyres of the Indian and the western Pacific Oceans and minima at higher latitudes. The annual mean global abundances of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus are 2.9 ± 0.1 × 10(27) and 7.0 ± 0.3 × 10(26) cells, respectively. Using projections of sea surface temperature as a result of increased concentration of greenhouse gases at the end of the 21st century, our niche models projected increases in cell numbers of 29% and 14% for Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, respectively. The changes are geographically uneven but include an increase in area. Thus, our global niche models suggest that oceanic microbial communities will experience complex changes as a result of projected future climate conditions. Because of the high abundances and contributions to primary production of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, these changes may have large impacts on ocean ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles.