13
views
0
recommends
+1 Recommend
0 collections
    0
    shares
      • Record: found
      • Abstract: found
      • Article: found
      Is Open Access

      Fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars - An analysis of learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO 2 and air pollutant emissions

      research-article

      Read this article at

      Bookmark
          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany. We find that between 2010 and 2016, the prices and price differentials relative to conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% for electric cars and 6 ± 1% and 37 ± 2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, price beak-even with conventional cars may be reached after another 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids are produced. The user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars relative to their conventional counterparts are declining annually by 14% and 26%. Also the costs for mitigating CO 2 and air pollutant emissions through the deployment of electrified cars tend to decline. However, at current levels, NO X and particle emissions are still mitigated at lower costs by state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the electrification of powertrains. Overall, the observation of robust technological learning suggests policy makers should focus their support on non-cost market barriers for the electrification of road transport, addressing specifically the availability of recharging infrastructure.

          Highlights

          • Since 2010, the price of electric and plug-in hybrid cars has been decreasing by 63% and 24%.

          • Electric and plug-in hybrid cars show learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 6 ± 1%.

          • Additional production of 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids before price break-even with conventional cars.

          • Non-cost market barriers for electric vehicles such as recharging infrastructure demand more attention.

          Related collections

          Most cited references31

          • Record: found
          • Abstract: not found
          • Article: not found

          Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles

            Bookmark
            • Record: found
            • Abstract: not found
            • Article: not found

            Consumer preferences for electric vehicles: a literature review

              Bookmark
              • Record: found
              • Abstract: not found
              • Article: not found
              Is Open Access

              The effect of fiscal incentives on market penetration of electric vehicles: A pairwise comparison of total cost of ownership

                Bookmark

                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                J Clean Prod
                J Clean Prod
                Journal of Cleaner Production
                Elsevier Science
                0959-6526
                1879-1786
                01 March 2019
                01 March 2019
                : 212
                : 1478-1489
                Affiliations
                [a ]European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Transport and Climate, Sustainable Transport Unit, via Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, Italy
                [b ]University of Applied Sciences Trier, Environmental Campus Birkenfeld, Environmental Planning and Technology Department, P.O. Box 1380, 55761, Birkenfeld, Germany
                Author notes
                []Corresponding author. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Transport and Climate, Sustainable Transport Unit, via Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, Italy. weisstn@ 123456mailbox.org
                Article
                S0959-6526(18)33721-1
                10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.019
                6358050
                30828137
                043bb982-3bec-4ffd-aeb3-80e982b0b5c2
                © 2018 The Authors

                This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

                History
                : 21 September 2018
                : 4 November 2018
                : 3 December 2018
                Categories
                Article

                electric cars,plug-in hybrid cars,learning rates,break-even production,emissions mitigation costs

                Comments

                Comment on this article