This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany. We find that between 2010 and 2016, the prices and price differentials relative to conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% for electric cars and 6 ± 1% and 37 ± 2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, price beak-even with conventional cars may be reached after another 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids are produced. The user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars relative to their conventional counterparts are declining annually by 14% and 26%. Also the costs for mitigating CO 2 and air pollutant emissions through the deployment of electrified cars tend to decline. However, at current levels, NO X and particle emissions are still mitigated at lower costs by state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the electrification of powertrains. Overall, the observation of robust technological learning suggests policy makers should focus their support on non-cost market barriers for the electrification of road transport, addressing specifically the availability of recharging infrastructure.
Since 2010, the price of electric and plug-in hybrid cars has been decreasing by 63% and 24%.
Electric and plug-in hybrid cars show learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 6 ± 1%.
Additional production of 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids before price break-even with conventional cars.
Non-cost market barriers for electric vehicles such as recharging infrastructure demand more attention.