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      Prediction of hepatic necroinflammatory activity in patients with chronic hepatitis B by a simple noninvasive model

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          Abstract

          Background

          A model was constructed using clinical and serum variables to discriminate between chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with and without significant necroinflammatory activity (score 4–18 vs. score 0–3).

          Methods

          Consecutive CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy were divided into two sequential groups: a training group (n = 401) and a validation group (n = 401). Multivariate analysis identified alanine aminotransferase, γ-glutamyltransferase, prothrombin time and albumin as independent predictors of necroinflammatory activity.

          Results

          The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.826 for the training group and 0.847 for the validation group. Using a cut-off score of H ≤ 0.375, significant necroinflammatory activity (score 4–18) was excluded with high accuracy [78.2% negative predictive value (NPV), 72% positive predictive value (PPV), and 90.8% sensitivity] in 238 (59.4%) of 401 patients in the training group and with the same certainty (88.1% NPV, 61.2% PPV, and 95.1% sensitivity) among 204 (50.9%) of 401 patients in the validation group. Similarly, applying a cut-off score of H > 0.720, significant necroinflammatory activity was correctly identified with high accuracy (90.8% PPV, 57.7% NPV, and 92.0% specificity) in 150 (37.4%) of 401 patients in the training group and with the same certainty (91.8% PPV, 64.6% NPV, and 95.4% specificity) in 188 (46.9%) of 401 patients in the validation group.

          Conclusions

          A predictive model based on easily accessible variables identified CHB patients with and without significant necroinflammatory activity with a high degree of accuracy. This model may decrease the need for liver biopsy for necroinflammatory activity grading in 72.1% of CHB patients.

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          Most cited references27

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          Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

          Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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            EASL 2017 Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of hepatitis B virus infection.

            Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a global public health problem with changing epidemiology due to several factors including vaccination policies and migration. This Clinical Practice Guideline presents updated recommendations for the optimal management of HBV infection. Chronic HBV infection can be classified into five phases: (I) HBeAg-positive chronic infection, (II) HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis, (III) HBeAg-negative chronic infection, (IV) HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis and (V) HBsAg-negative phase. All patients with chronic HBV infection are at increased risk of progression to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), depending on host and viral factors. The main goal of therapy is to improve survival and quality of life by preventing disease progression, and consequently HCC development. The induction of long-term suppression of HBV replication represents the main endpoint of current treatment strategies, while HBsAg loss is an optimal endpoint. The typical indication for treatment requires HBV DNA >2,000IU/ml, elevated ALT and/or at least moderate histological lesions, while all cirrhotic patients with detectable HBV DNA should be treated. Additional indications include the prevention of mother to child transmission in pregnant women with high viremia and prevention of HBV reactivation in patients requiring immunosuppression or chemotherapy. The long-term administration of a potent nucleos(t)ide analogue with high barrier to resistance, i.e., entecavir, tenofovir disoproxil or tenofovir alafenamide, represents the treatment of choice. Pegylated interferon-alfa treatment can also be considered in mild to moderate chronic hepatitis B patients. Combination therapies are not generally recommended. All treated and untreated patients should be monitored for treatment response and adherence, and the risk of progression and development of complications. HCC remains the major concern for treated chronic hepatitis B patients. Several subgroups of patients with HBV infection require specific focus. Future treatment strategies to achieve 'cure' of disease and new biomarkers are discussed.
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              A simple noninvasive index can predict both significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

              Information on the stage of liver fibrosis is essential in managing chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients. However, most models for predicting liver fibrosis are complicated and separate formulas are needed to predict significant fibrosis and cirrhosis. The aim of our study was to construct one simple model consisting of routine laboratory data to predict both significant fibrosis and cirrhosis among patients with CHC. Consecutive treatment-naive CHC patients who underwent liver biopsy over a 25-month period were divided into 2 sequential cohorts: training set (n = 192) and validation set (n = 78). The best model for predicting both significant fibrosis (Ishak score > or = 3) and cirrhosis in the training set included platelets, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase with an area under ROC curves (AUC) of 0.82 and 0.92, respectively. A novel index, AST to platelet ratio index (APRI), was developed to amplify the opposing effects of liver fibrosis on AST and platelet count. The AUC of APRI for predicting significant fibrosis and cirrhosis were 0.80 and 0.89, respectively, in the training set. Using optimized cut-off values, significant fibrosis could be predicted accurately in 51% and cirrhosis in 81% of patients. The AUC of APRI for predicting significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in the validation set were 0.88 and 0.94, respectively. In conclusion, our study showed that a simple index using readily available laboratory results can identify CHC patients with significant fibrosis and cirrhosis with a high degree of accuracy. Application of this index may decrease the need for staging liver biopsy specimens among CHC patients.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                fayesff@126.com
                yanyan61086@163.com
                spadesa@126.com
                zhengruidan@tom.com
                xianjc09@163.com
                davidshi0571@126.com
                Levine4959@163.com
                christinedong@163.com
                +86-21-63240090 , xumingyi2014@163.com
                +86-21-63240090 , lungenlu1965@163.com
                Journal
                J Transl Med
                J Transl Med
                Journal of Translational Medicine
                BioMed Central (London )
                1479-5876
                18 June 2018
                18 June 2018
                2018
                : 16
                : 166
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0368 8293, GRID grid.16821.3c, Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, , Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, ; Shanghai, China
                [2 ]Research and Therapy Center for Liver Diseases, Zhengxing Hospital, Zhangzhou, Fujian Province China
                [3 ]GRID grid.479690.5, Department of Infectious Disease, , Taizhou People’s Hospital, ; Taizhou, Jiangsu Province China
                [4 ]Research and Therapy Center for Liver Diseases, Hangzhou Second People’s Hospital, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province China
                Article
                1538
                10.1186/s12967-018-1538-z
                6006738
                29914513
                0490ad6a-6c75-4795-8727-331897cb9af8
                © The Author(s) 2018

                Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

                History
                : 17 January 2018
                : 6 June 2018
                Funding
                Funded by: the National Key Technologies Research and Development Program of China during the 11th and 12th Five Year Plan Period
                Award ID: 2008ZX1002-006
                Award ID: 2012ZX10002007-001-040
                Award ID: 2013ZX10002004-002-003
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003399, Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality;
                Award ID: 10411955300
                Award ID: 09XD1403200
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007279, Shanghai Municipal Health Bureau;
                Award ID: XBR2011012
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Research
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2018

                Medicine
                chronic hepatitis b,hepatic necroinflammatory activity,noninvasive,prediction
                Medicine
                chronic hepatitis b, hepatic necroinflammatory activity, noninvasive, prediction

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