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      Current and Future Distribution of the Lone Star Tick, Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae) in North America

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          Abstract

          Acarological surveys in areas outside the currently believed leading edge of the distribution of lone star ticks ( Amblyomma americanum), coupled with recent reports of their identification in previously uninvaded areas in the public health literature, suggest that this species is more broadly distributed in North America than currently understood. Therefore, we evaluated the potential geographic extent under present and future conditions using ecological niche modeling approach based on museum records available for this species at the Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit (WRBU). The median prediction of a best fitting model indicated that lone star ticks are currently likely to be present in broader regions across the Eastern Seaboard as well as in the Upper Midwest, where this species could be expanding its range. Further northward and westward expansion of these ticks can be expected as a result of ongoing climate change, under both low- and high-emissions scenarios.

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          Most cited references42

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          Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

          Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species' ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.
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            spThin: an R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models

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              Making better Maxentmodels of species distributions: complexity, overfitting and evaluation

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SoftwareRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: ResourcesRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Resources
                Role: Data curationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                2 January 2019
                2019
                : 14
                : 1
                : e0209082
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Department of Diagnostic Medicine and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, United States of America
                [2 ] Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
                [3 ] Division of Entomology, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
                University of Minnesota, UNITED STATES
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2657-3398
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2611-1767
                Article
                PONE-D-18-19968
                10.1371/journal.pone.0209082
                6314611
                30601855
                04c3d3db-9e2d-4124-9bad-76192a23d1d6

                This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.

                History
                : 5 July 2018
                : 28 November 2018
                Page count
                Figures: 4, Tables: 0, Pages: 13
                Funding
                No funding was received for this work.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Infectious Diseases
                Disease Vectors
                Ticks
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Species Interactions
                Disease Vectors
                Ticks
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Organisms
                Eukaryota
                Animals
                Invertebrates
                Arthropoda
                Arachnida
                Ixodes
                Ticks
                People and places
                Geographical locations
                North America
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Ecology
                Ecological Niches
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Ecology
                Ecological Niches
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Climatology
                Climate Change
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Climatology
                Climate Change
                Anthropogenic Climate Change
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Public and Occupational Health
                Physical Sciences
                Mathematics
                Numerical Analysis
                Extrapolation
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Population Biology
                Population Dynamics
                Geographic Distribution
                Custom metadata
                All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.

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                Uncategorized

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