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      • Record: found
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      NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS‐CF v1.0: Stratospheric Composition

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          Abstract

          The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Composition Forecast (GEOS‐CF) provides recent estimates and 5‐day forecasts of atmospheric composition to the public in near‐real time. To do this, the GEOS Earth system model is coupled with the GEOS‐Chem tropospheric‐stratospheric unified chemistry extension (UCX) to represent composition from the surface to the top of the GEOS atmosphere (0.01 hPa). The GEOS‐CF system is described, including updates made to the GEOS‐Chem UCX mechanism within GEOS‐CF for improved representation of stratospheric chemistry. Comparisons are made against balloon, lidar, and satellite observations for stratospheric composition, including measurements of ozone (O 3) and important nitrogen and chlorine species related to stratospheric O 3 recovery. The GEOS‐CF nudges the stratospheric O 3 toward the GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS FP) assimilated O 3 product; as a result the stratospheric O 3 in the GEOS‐CF historical estimate agrees well with observations. During abnormal dynamical and chemical environments such as the 2020 polar vortexes, the GEOS‐CF O 3 forecasts are more realistic than GEOS FP O 3 forecasts because of the inclusion of the complex GEOS‐Chem UCX stratospheric chemistry. Overall, the spatial patterns of the GEOS‐CF simulated concentrations of stratospheric composition agree well with satellite observations. However, there are notable biases—such as low NO x and HNO 3 in the polar regions and generally low HCl throughout the stratosphere—and future improvements to the chemistry mechanism and emissions are discussed. GEOS‐CF is a new tool for the research community and instrument teams observing trace gases in the stratosphere and troposphere, providing near‐real‐time three‐dimensional gridded information on atmospheric composition.

          Key Points

          • Demonstrate the GEOS‐CF system is capable of supporting NASA science missions and applications which observe stratospheric composition

          • The GEOS‐CF model produces realistic stratospheric ozone forecasts, a new capability during anomalous polar vortex conditions

          • Spatial patterns of the GEOS‐CF simulated concentrations of stratospheric composition agree well with independent observations

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                K. E. Knowland:
                ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0837-8502
                k.e.knowland@nasa.gov
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): J Adv Model Earth Syst
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): J Adv Model Earth Syst
                Journal ID (doi): 10.1002/(ISSN)1942-2466
                Journal ID (publisher-id): JAME
                Title: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
                Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1942-2466
                Publication date (Electronic): 07 June 2022
                Publication date (Print): June 2022
                Volume: 14
                Issue: 6 ( doiID: 10.1002/jame.v14.6 )
                Electronic Location Identifier: e2021MS002852
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Universities Space Research Association (USRA)/GESTAR Columbia MD USA
                [ 2 ] NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Greenbelt MD USA
                [ 3 ] Now Morgan State University (MSU)/GESTAR‐II Baltimore MD USA
                [ 4 ] Science Systems and Applications (SSAI), Inc. Lanham MD USA
                [ 5 ] Earth Science Division NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field CA USA
                [ 6 ] Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory NASA GSFC Greenbelt MD USA
                [ 7 ] Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA
                [ 8 ] Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA
                [ 9 ] Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Wrightwood CA USA
                [ 10 ] Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USA
                [ 11 ] Department of Physics University of Toronto Toronto ON Canada
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Correspondence to:

                K. E. Knowland,

                k.e.knowland@ 123456nasa.gov

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0837-8502
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0552-4298
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6445-9254
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3795-2983
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0414-0882
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6010-7497
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4419-9157
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2476-4801
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0880-0232
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8430-0515
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8753-9153
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3420-9454
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0035-9625
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0200-717X
                Article
                Publisher ID: JAME21584 Other ID: 2021MS002852
                DOI: 10.1029/2021MS002852
                PMC ID: 9287101
                SO-VID: 052a1f34-6e19-4a6e-a042-e7305ffc595b
                Copyright © © 2022 The Authors. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.
                License:

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

                History
                Date revision received : 03 March 2022
                Date received : 30 September 2021
                Date accepted : 13 April 2022
                Page count
                Figures: 16, Tables: 2, Pages: 28, Words: 17918
                Funding
                Funded by: National Aeronautics and Space Administration , doi 10.13039/100000104;
                Funded by: NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS)
                Categories
                Subject: Atmospheric Composition and Structure
                Subject: Middle Atmosphere: Composition and Chemistry
                Subject: Middle Atmosphere: Constituent Transport and Chemistry
                Subject: Atmospheric Composition and Structure
                Subject: Air/Sea Constituent Fluxes
                Subject: Middle Atmosphere: Energy Deposition
                Subject: Volcanic Effects
                Subject: Biogeosciences
                Subject: Climate Dynamics
                Subject: Modeling
                Subject: Computational Geophysics
                Subject: Modeling
                Subject: Numerical Solutions
                Subject: Cryosphere
                Subject: Avalanches
                Subject: Mass Balance
                Subject: Modeling
                Subject: Geodesy and Gravity
                Subject: Mass Balance
                Subject: Ocean Monitoring with Geodetic Techniques
                Subject: Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions
                Subject: Global Change from Geodesy
                Subject: Global Change
                Subject: Earth System Modeling
                Subject: Global Change
                Subject: Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change
                Subject: Climate Variability
                Subject: Climate Dynamics
                Subject: Impacts of Global Change
                Subject: Land/Atmosphere Interactions
                Subject: Oceans
                Subject: Regional Climate Change
                Subject: Sea Level Change
                Subject: Solid Earth
                Subject: Water Cycles
                Subject: Hydrology
                Subject: Climate Impacts
                Subject: Hydrological Cycles and Budgets
                Subject: Land/Atmosphere Interactions
                Subject: Modeling
                Subject: Informatics
                Subject: Modeling
                Subject: Marine Geology and Geophysics
                Subject: Gravity and Isostasy
                Subject: Atmospheric Processes
                Subject: Stratosphere/Troposphere Interactions
                Subject: Atmospheric Processes
                Subject: Climate Change and Variability
                Subject: Climatology
                Subject: General Circulation
                Subject: Land/Atmosphere Interactions
                Subject: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics
                Subject: Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions
                Subject: Regional Modeling
                Subject: Theoretical Modeling
                Subject: Oceanography: General
                Subject: Climate and Interannual Variability
                Subject: Numerical Modeling
                Subject: Natural Hazards
                Subject: Atmospheric
                Subject: Geological
                Subject: Oceanic
                Subject: Physical Modeling
                Subject: Climate Impact
                Subject: Risk
                Subject: Disaster Risk Analysis and Assessment
                Subject: Oceanography: Physical
                Subject: Air/Sea Interactions
                Subject: Decadal Ocean Variability
                Subject: General Circulation
                Subject: Ocean influence of Earth rotation
                Subject: Sea Level: Variations and Mean
                Subject: Surface Waves and Tides
                Subject: Tsunamis and Storm Surges
                Subject: Paleoceanography
                Subject: Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change
                Subject: Policy Sciences
                Subject: Benefit‐cost Analysis
                Subject: Radio Science
                Subject: Radio Oceanography
                Subject: Seismology
                Subject: Earthquake Ground Motions and Engineering Seismology
                Subject: Volcano Seismology
                Subject: Volcanology
                Subject: Volcano/Climate Interactions
                Subject: Atmospheric Effects
                Subject: Volcano Monitoring
                Subject: Effusive Volcanism
                Subject: Mud Volcanism
                Subject: Explosive Volcanism
                Subject: Volcanic Hazards and Risks
                Subject: Research Article
                Subject: Research Article
                Custom metadata
                source-schema-version-number 2.0
                cover-date June 2022
                details-of-publishers-convertor Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:6.1.7 mode:remove_FC converted:15.07.2022

                Keywords: geos,ozone,stratosphere,atmospheric chemistry,near real‐time forecasting,global modeling
                Data availability:
                Keywords: geos, ozone, stratosphere, atmospheric chemistry, near real‐time forecasting, global modeling

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