Lake level fluctuations and divergence of cichlid fish ecomorphs in Lake Tanganyika

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source-sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

Ecological opportunity--through entry into a new environment, the origin of a key innovation or extinction of antagonists--is widely thought to link ecological population dynamics to evolutionary diversification. The population-level processes arising from ecological opportunity are well documented under the concept of ecological release. However, there is little consensus as to how these processes promote phenotypic diversification, rapid speciation and adaptive radiation. We propose that ecological opportunity could promote adaptive radiation by generating specific changes to the selective regimes acting on natural populations, both by relaxing effective stabilizing selection and by creating conditions that ultimately generate diversifying selection. We assess theoretical and empirical evidence for these effects of ecological opportunity and review emerging phylogenetic approaches that attempt to detect the signature of ecological opportunity across geological time. Finally, we evaluate the evidence for the evolutionary effects of ecological opportunity in the diversification of Caribbean Anolis lizards. Some of the processes that could link ecological opportunity to adaptive radiation are well documented, but others remain unsupported. We suggest that more study is required to characterize the form of natural selection acting on natural populations and to better describe the relationship between ecological opportunity and speciation rates.

Historically, six small lakes in southwestern British Columbia each contained a sympatric species pair of three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus). These pairs consisted of a 'benthic' and 'limnetic' species that had arisen postglacially and, in four of the lakes, independently. Sympatric sticklebacks are considered biological species because they are morphologically, ecologically and genetically distinct and because they are strongly reproductively isolated from one another. The restricted range of the species pairs places them at risk of extinction, and one of the pairs has gone extinct after the introduction of an exotic catfish. In another lake, Enos Lake, southeastern Vancouver Island, an earlier report suggested that its species pair is at risk from elevated levels of hybridization. We conducted a detailed morphological analysis, as well as genetic analysis of variation at five microsatellite loci for samples spanning a time frame of 1977 to 2002 to test the hypothesis that the pair in Enos Lake is collapsing into a hybrid swarm. Our morphological analysis showed a clear breakdown between benthics and limnetics. Bayesian model-based clustering indicated that two morphological clusters were evident in 1977 and 1988, which were replaced by 1997 by a single highly variable cluster. The most recent 2000 and 2002 samples confirm the breakdown. Microsatellite analysis corroborated the morphological results. Bayesian analyses of population structure in a sample collected in 1994 indicated two genetically distinct populations in Enos Lake, but only a single genetic population was evident in 1997, 2000, and 2002. In addition, genetic analyses of samples collected in 1997, 2000, and 2002 showed strong signals of 'hybrids'; they were genetically intermediate to parental genotypes. Our results support the idea that the Enos Lake species pair is collapsing into a hybrid swarm. Although the precise mechanism(s) responsible for elevated hybridization in the lake is unknown, the demise of the Enos Lake species pair follows the appearance of an exotic crayfish, Pascifasticus lenisculus, in the early 1990s.