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      Spatial-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China and its prediction: A data-driven modeling analysis

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      The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries

      Journal of Infection in Developing Countries

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          Abstract

          Currently, the outbreak of COVID-19 is rapidly spreading especially in Wuhan city, and threatens 14 million people in central China. In the present study we applied the Moran index, a strong statistical tool, to the spatial panel to show that COVID-19 infection is spatially dependent and mainly spread from Hubei Province in Central China to neighbouring areas. Logistic model was employed according to the trend of available data, which shows the difference between Hubei Province and outside of it. We also calculated the reproduction number R0 for the range of [2.23, 2.51] via SEIR model. The measures to reduce or prevent the virus spread should be implemented, and we expect our data-driven modeling analysis providing some insights to identify and prepare for the future virus control.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries
          J Infect Dev Ctries
          Journal of Infection in Developing Countries
          1972-2680
          March 31 2020
          March 31 2020
          : 14
          : 03
          : 246-253
          Article
          10.3855/jidc.12585
          © 2020

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