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Prospective Validation of a 21-Gene Expression Assay in Breast Cancer.

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      Abstract

      Prior studies with the use of a prospective-retrospective design including archival tumor samples have shown that gene-expression assays provide clinically useful prognostic information. However, a prospectively conducted study in a uniformly treated population provides the highest level of evidence supporting the clinical validity and usefulness of a biomarker.

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      Most cited references 36

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      Cancer statistics, 2014.

      Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States in the current year and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Incidence data were collected by the National Cancer Institute, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries and mortality data were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. A total of 1,665,540 new cancer cases and 585,720 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States in 2014. During the most recent 5 years for which there are data (2006-2010), delay-adjusted cancer incidence rates declined slightly in men (by 0.6% per year) and were stable in women, while cancer death rates decreased by 1.8% per year in men and by 1.4% per year in women. The combined cancer death rate (deaths per 100,000 population) has been continuously declining for 2 decades, from a peak of 215.1 in 1991 to 171.8 in 2010. This 20% decline translates to the avoidance of approximately 1,340,400 cancer deaths (952,700 among men and 387,700 among women) during this time period. The magnitude of the decline in cancer death rates from 1991 to 2010 varies substantially by age, race, and sex, ranging from no decline among white women aged 80 years and older to a 55% decline among black men aged 40 years to 49 years. Notably, black men experienced the largest drop within every 10-year age group. Further progress can be accelerated by applying existing cancer control knowledge across all segments of the population. © 2014 American Cancer Society, Inc.
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        Effects of chemotherapy and hormonal therapy for early breast cancer on recurrence and 15-year survival: an overview of the randomised trials.

         Michael Gnant (2016)
        Quinquennial overviews (1985-2000) of the randomised trials in early breast cancer have assessed the 5 year and 10-year effects of various systemic adjuvant therapies on breast cancer recurrence and survival. Here, we report the 10-year and 15-year effects. Collaborative meta-analyses were undertaken of 194 unconfounded randomised trials of adjuvant chemotherapy or hormonal therapy that began by 1995. Many trials involved CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, fluorouracil), anthracycline-based combinations such as FAC (fluorouracil, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide) or FEC (fluorouracil, epirubicin, cyclophosphamide), tamoxifen, or ovarian suppression: none involved taxanes, trastuzumab, raloxifene, or modern aromatase inhibitors. Allocation to about 6 months of anthracycline-based polychemotherapy (eg, with FAC or FEC) reduces the annual breast cancer death rate by about 38% (SE 5) for women younger than 50 years of age when diagnosed and by about 20% (SE 4) for those of age 50-69 years when diagnosed, largely irrespective of the use of tamoxifen and of oestrogen receptor (ER) status, nodal status, or other tumour characteristics. Such regimens are significantly (2p=0.0001 for recurrence, 2p or =70 years), progesterone receptor status, or other tumour characteristics. 5 years is significantly (2p<0.00001 for recurrence, 2p=0.01 for breast cancer mortality) more effective than just 1-2 years of tamoxifen. For ER-positive tumours, the annual breast cancer mortality rates are similar during years 0-4 and 5-14, as are the proportional reductions in them by 5 years of tamoxifen, so the cumulative reduction in mortality is more than twice as big at 15 years as at 5 years after diagnosis. These results combine six meta-analyses: anthracycline-based versus no chemotherapy (8000 women); CMF-based versus no chemotherapy (14,000); anthracycline-based versus CMF-based chemotherapy (14,000); about 5 years of tamoxifen versus none (15,000); about 1-2 years of tamoxifen versus none (33,000); and about 5 years versus 1-2 years of tamoxifen (18,000). Finally, allocation to ovarian ablation or suppression (8000 women) also significantly reduces breast cancer mortality, but appears to do so only in the absence of other systemic treatments. For middle-aged women with ER-positive disease (the commonest type of breast cancer), the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the next 15 years would be approximately halved by 6 months of anthracycline-based chemotherapy (with a combination such as FAC or FEC) followed by 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. For, if mortality reductions of 38% (age <50 years) and 20% (age 50-69 years) from such chemotherapy were followed by a further reduction of 31% from tamoxifen in the risks that remain, the final mortality reductions would be 57% and 45%, respectively (and, the trial results could well have been somewhat stronger if there had been full compliance with the allocated treatments). Overall survival would be comparably improved, since these treatments have relatively small effects on mortality from the aggregate of all other causes. Some of the widely practicable adjuvant drug treatments that were being tested in the 1980s, which substantially reduced 5-year recurrence rates (but had somewhat less effect on 5-year mortality rates), also substantially reduce 15-year mortality rates. Further improvements in long-term survival could well be available from newer drugs, or better use of older drugs.
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          A multigene assay to predict recurrence of tamoxifen-treated, node-negative breast cancer.

          The likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with breast cancer who have no involved lymph nodes and estrogen-receptor-positive tumors is poorly defined by clinical and histopathological measures. We tested whether the results of a reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay of 21 prospectively selected genes in paraffin-embedded tumor tissue would correlate with the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with node-negative, tamoxifen-treated breast cancer who were enrolled in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project clinical trial B-14. The levels of expression of 16 cancer-related genes and 5 reference genes were used in a prospectively defined algorithm to calculate a recurrence score and to determine a risk group (low, intermediate, or high) for each patient. Adequate RT-PCR profiles were obtained in 668 of 675 tumor blocks. The proportions of patients categorized as having a low, intermediate, or high risk by the RT-PCR assay were 51, 22, and 27 percent, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the rates of distant recurrence at 10 years in the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 6.8 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 4.0 to 9.6), 14.3 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 8.3 to 20.3), and 30.5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 23.6 to 37.4). The rate in the low-risk group was significantly lower than that in the high-risk group (P<0.001). In a multivariate Cox model, the recurrence score provided significant predictive power that was independent of age and tumor size (P<0.001). The recurrence score was also predictive of overall survival (P<0.001) and could be used as a continuous function to predict distant recurrence in individual patients. The recurrence score has been validated as quantifying the likelihood of distant recurrence in tamoxifen-treated patients with node-negative, estrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer. Copyright 2004 Massachusetts Medical Society.
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            Author and article information

            Affiliations
            [1 ] From the Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY (J.A.S., D.F.M.); Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston (R.J.G.); Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto (K.I.P.) and Juravinski Cancer Center, Hamilton, ON (T.J.W.) - both in Canada; Loyola University Medical Center, Maywood (K.S.A.), and Northwestern University, Chicago (L.I.W., V.G.K.) - both in Illinois; University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (D.F.H.); Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine and the Massey Cancer Center, Richmond (C.E.G.); University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (E.C.D.), Duke University Medical Center, Durham (J.A.O.), Wake Forest University Health Service, Winston-Salem (L.I.W.), and Southeast Clinical Oncology Research Consortium, Goldsboro (J.N.A.) - all in North Carolina; Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL (E.A.P.); University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore (J.A.O.), and National Institutes of Health, Bethesda (J.Z., T.L.) - both in Maryland; Indiana University School of Medicine (S.S.B.) and Indiana University Hospital (G.W.S.) - both in Indianapolis; Vince Lombardi Cancer Clinic, Two Rivers (T.J.S.), and Fox Valley Hematology and Oncology, Appleton (T.F.G.) - both in Wisconsin; Baylor College of Medicine, Houston (M.J.E.), and University of Texas, San Antonio (P.R.) - both in Texas; Washington University, St. Louis (M.J.E.); Allegheny General Hospital (S.P.) and University of Pittsburgh (A.M.B.) - both in Pittsburgh; the Department of Medical Oncology and Breast Center, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea (S.P.); Emory University, Atlanta (W.C.W.); Irish Clinical Oncology Research Group, Dublin (M.M.K.); Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Neoplásicas, Lima, Peru (H.L.G.M.); Cancer Center of Kansas, Wichita (P.S.R.); Vanderbilt University, Nashville (I.A.M.); Rutgers Cancer Institute of New Jersey, New Brunswick (D.L.T.); University of Hawaii Cancer Center, Honolulu (J.L.B.); and Stanford University, Stanford, CA (G.W.S.)
            Journal
            N. Engl. J. Med.
            The New England journal of medicine
            1533-4406
            0028-4793
            Nov 19 2015
            : 373
            : 21
            10.1056/NEJMoa1510764
            26412349
            4701034
            NIHMS742757

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