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      A machine learning forecasting model for COVID-19 pandemic in India

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          Abstract

          Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an inflammation disease from a new virus. The disease causes respiratory ailment (like influenza) with manifestations, for example, cold, cough and fever, and in progressively serious cases, the problem in breathing. COVID-2019 has been perceived as a worldwide pandemic and a few examinations are being led utilizing different numerical models to anticipate the likely advancement of this pestilence. These numerical models dependent on different factors and investigations are dependent upon potential inclination. Here, we presented a model that could be useful to predict the spread of COVID-2019. We have performed linear regression, Multilayer perceptron and Vector autoregression method for desire on the COVID-19 Kaggle data to anticipate the epidemiological example of the ailment and pace of COVID-2019 cases in India. Anticipated the potential patterns of COVID-19 effects in India dependent on data gathered from Kaggle. With the common data about confirmed, death and recovered cases across India for over the time length helps in anticipating and estimating the not so distant future. For extra assessment or future perspective, case definition and data combination must be kept up persistently.

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          Is Open Access

          Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions

          Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak originating in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, coincided with chunyun, the period of mass migration for the annual Spring Festival. To contain its spread, China adopted unprecedented nationwide interventions on January 23 2020. These policies included large-scale quarantine, strict controls on travel and extensive monitoring of suspected cases. However, it is unknown whether these policies have had an impact on the epidemic. We sought to show how these control measures impacted the containment of the epidemic. Methods We integrated population migration data before and after January 23 and most updated COVID-19 epidemiological data into the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to derive the epidemic curve. We also used an artificial intelligence (AI) approach, trained on the 2003 SARS data, to predict the epidemic. Results We found that the epidemic of China should peak by late February, showing gradual decline by end of April. A five-day delay in implementation would have increased epidemic size in mainland China three-fold. Lifting the Hubei quarantine would lead to a second epidemic peak in Hubei province in mid-March and extend the epidemic to late April, a result corroborated by the machine learning prediction. Conclusions Our dynamic SEIR model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The implementation of control measures on January 23 2020 was indispensable in reducing the eventual COVID-19 epidemic size.
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            A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion

            A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that collection. In these lecture notes, the usual workflow of the use of mathematical models to investigate a biological problem is described and the use of a collection of model is motivated. Models depend on parameters that must be estimated using observations; and when a collection of models is considered, the best model has then to be identified based on available observations. Hence, model calibration and selection, which are intrinsically linked, are essential steps of the workflow. Here, some procedures for model calibration and a criterion, the Akaike Information Criterion, of model selection based on experimental data are described. Rough derivation, practical technique of computation and use of this criterion are detailed.
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              A Pearson’s correlation coefficient based decision tree and its parallel implementation

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                r.sujatha@vit.ac.in
                jyotirchatterjee@gmail.com
                aboitcairo@gmail.com
                Journal
                Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess
                Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess
                Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
                Springer Berlin Heidelberg (Berlin/Heidelberg )
                1436-3240
                1436-3259
                30 May 2020
                : 1-14
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.412813.d, ISNI 0000 0001 0687 4946, Vellore Institute of Technology, ; Vellore, India
                [2 ]Lord Buddha Education Foundation, Kathmandu, Nepal
                [3 ]GRID grid.7776.1, ISNI 0000 0004 0639 9286, Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence, , Cairo University and Scientific Research Group in Egypt (SRGE), ; Giza, Egypt
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2527-916X
                Article
                1827
                10.1007/s00477-020-01827-8
                7261047
                32837309
                07e2f750-2482-4b16-8640-7f409ea19fe3
                © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020

                This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.

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                Categories
                Original Paper

                covid-19,prediction,linear regression (lr),multilayer perceptron (mlp),vector autoregression (var)

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