Fibrosis is the unifying pathway leading to chronic kidney disease. Identifying biomarkers of fibrosis may help predict disease progression.
We performed a systematic review to evaluate the reliability of blood and urine biomarkers in identifying fibrosis on biopsy as well as predicting renal outcomes. Using MEDLINE and EMBASE, a two-stage search strategy was implemented. Stage I identified a library of biomarkers correlating with fibrosis on biopsy. Stage II evaluated the association between biomarkers identified in stage I, and renal outcomes. Only biomarkers with moderate positive correlation with fibrosis ( r > 0.40) or acceptable area under the curve (AUC >0.65) advanced to stage II.
Stage I identified 17 studies and 14 biomarkers. Five biomarkers met criteria to advance to stage II, but only three were independently associated with renal outcomes. Transforming growth factor β (TGF-β) correlated with fibrosis ( r = 0.60), and was associated with 1.7–3.9 times the risk of worsening renal function in 426 patients. Monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) diagnosed fibrosis with AUC of 0.66 and was associated with 2.3–11.0 times the risk of worsening renal function in 596 patients. Matrix metalloproteinase-2 (MMP-2) correlated with fibrosis ( r = 0.41), and was associated with 2.5 times the risk of worsening renal function.
Given the heterogeneity of the data due to diverse patient populations along with differing renal outcomes, a meta-analysis could not be conducted. Nonetheless we can conclude from the published data that TGF-β, MCP-1 and MMP-2 may identify patients at risk for renal fibrosis and hence worse renal outcomes.