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      Risk prediction models for contrast induced nephropathy: systematic review

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          Abstract

          Objectives To look at the available literature on validated prediction models for contrast induced nephropathy and describe their characteristics.

          Design Systematic review.

          Data sources Medline, Embase, and CINAHL (cumulative index to nursing and allied health literature) databases.

          Review methods Databases searched from inception to 2015, and the retrieved reference lists hand searched. Dual reviews were conducted to identify studies published in the English language of prediction models tested with patients that included derivation and validation cohorts. Data were extracted on baseline patient characteristics, procedural characteristics, modelling methods, metrics of model performance, risk of bias, and clinical usefulness. Eligible studies evaluated characteristics of predictive models that identified patients at risk of contrast induced nephropathy among adults undergoing a diagnostic or interventional procedure using conventional radiocontrast media (media used for computed tomography or angiography, and not gadolinium based contrast).

          Results 16 studies were identified, describing 12 prediction models. Substantial interstudy heterogeneity was identified, as a result of different clinical settings, cointerventions, and the timing of creatinine measurement to define contrast induced nephropathy. Ten models were validated internally and six were validated externally. Discrimination varied in studies that were validated internally (C statistic 0.61-0.95) and externally (0.57-0.86). Only one study presented reclassification indices. The majority of higher performing models included measures of pre-existing chronic kidney disease, age, diabetes, heart failure or impaired ejection fraction, and hypotension or shock. No prediction model evaluated its effect on clinical decision making or patient outcomes.

          Conclusions Most predictive models for contrast induced nephropathy in clinical use have modest ability, and are only relevant to patients receiving contrast for coronary angiography. Further research is needed to develop models that can better inform patient centred decision making, as well as improve the use of prevention strategies for contrast induced nephropathy.

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          Most cited references 34

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          Acute kidney injury, mortality, length of stay, and costs in hospitalized patients.

          The marginal effects of acute kidney injury on in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), and costs have not been well described. A consecutive sample of 19,982 adults who were admitted to an urban academic medical center, including 9210 who had two or more serum creatinine (SCr) determinations, was evaluated. The presence and degree of acute kidney injury were assessed using absolute and relative increases from baseline to peak SCr concentration during hospitalization. Large increases in SCr concentration were relatively rare (e.g., >or=2.0 mg/dl in 105 [1%] patients), whereas more modest increases in SCr were common (e.g., >or=0.5 mg/dl in 1237 [13%] patients). Modest changes in SCr were significantly associated with mortality, LOS, and costs, even after adjustment for age, gender, admission International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis, severity of illness (diagnosis-related group weight), and chronic kidney disease. For example, an increase in SCr >or=0.5 mg/dl was associated with a 6.5-fold (95% confidence interval 5.0 to 8.5) increase in the odds of death, a 3.5-d increase in LOS, and nearly 7500 dollars in excess hospital costs. Acute kidney injury is associated with significantly increased mortality, LOS, and costs across a broad spectrum of conditions. Moreover, outcomes are related directly to the severity of acute kidney injury, whether characterized by nominal or percentage changes in serum creatinine.
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            A simple risk score for prediction of contrast-induced nephropathy after percutaneous coronary intervention: development and initial validation.

            We sought to develop a simple risk score of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Although several risk factors for CIN have been identified, the cumulative risk rendered by their combination is unknown. A total of 8,357 patients were randomly assigned to a development and a validation dataset. The baseline clinical and procedural characteristics of the 5,571 patients in the development dataset were considered as candidate univariate predictors of CIN (increase >or=25% and/or >or=0.5 mg/dl in serum creatinine at 48 h after PCI vs. baseline). Multivariate logistic regression was then used to identify independent predictors of CIN with a p value 75 years, anemia, and volume of contrast) were assigned a weighted integer; the sum of the integers was a total risk score for each patient. The overall occurrence of CIN in the development set was 13.1% (range 7.5% to 57.3% for a low [ or=16] risk score, respectively); the rate of CIN increased exponentially with increasing risk score (Cochran Armitage chi-square, p < 0.0001). In the 2,786 patients of the validation dataset, the model demonstrated good discriminative power (c statistic = 0.67); the increasing risk score was again strongly associated with CIN (range 8.4% to 55.9% for a low and high risk score, respectively). The risk of CIN after PCI can be simply assessed using readily available information. This risk score can be used for both clinical and investigational purposes.
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              Acute renal failure after coronary intervention: incidence, risk factors, and relationship to mortality.

              This study set out to define the incidence, predictors, and mortality related to acute renal failure (ARF) and acute renal failure requiring dialysis (ARFD) after coronary intervention. Derivation-validation set methods were used in 1,826 consecutive patients undergoing coronary intervention with evaluation of baseline creatinine clearance (CrCl), diabetic status, contrast exposure, postprocedure creatinine, ARF, ARFD, in-hospital mortality, and long-term survival (derivation set). Multiple logistic regression was used to derive the prior probability of ARFD in a second set of 1,869 consecutive patients (validation set). The incidence of ARF and ARFD was 144.6/1,000 and 7.7/1,000 cases respectively. The cutoff dose of contrast below which there was no ARFD was 100 mL. No patient with a CrCl > 47 mL/min developed ARFD. These thresholds were confirmed in the validation set. Multivariate analysis found CrCl [odds ratio (OR) = 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77 to 0.89, P <0.00001], diabetes (OR = 5.47, 95% CI 1.40 to 21.32, P = 0.01), and contrast dose (OR = 1.008, 95% CI 1.002 to 1.013, P = 0.01) to be independent predictors of ARFD. Patients in the validation set who underwent dialysis had a predicted prior probability of ARFD of between 0.07 and 0.73. The in-hospital mortality for those who developed ARFD was 35.7% and the 2-year survival was 18.8%. The occurrence of ARFD after coronary intervention is rare (<1%) but is associated with high in-hospital mortality and poor long-term survival. Individual patient risk can be estimated from calculated CrCl, diabetic status, and expected contrast dose prior to a proposed coronary intervention.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: research fellow
                Role: professor
                Role: professor
                Role: research fellow
                Role: associate professor
                Role: associate professor
                Journal
                BMJ
                BMJ
                bmj
                The BMJ
                BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.
                0959-8138
                1756-1833
                2015
                27 August 2015
                : 351
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Division of Nephrology, St Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
                [2 ]Department of Paediatrics, Mount Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
                [3 ]Division of Nephrology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USA
                [4 ]Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute of St Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, ON, M5C 2T2, Canada
                Author notes
                Correspondence to: Z Harel harelz@ 123456smh.ca
                Article
                sils027294
                10.1136/bmj.h4395
                4784870
                26316642
                © Silver et al 2015

                This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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