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Abstract

Background Patients with cirrhosis have a high incidence of abdominal wall hernias and carry an elevated perioperative morbidity and mortality. The optimal surgical management strategy as well as timing of abdominal hernia repair remains controversial. Methods A cohort study of 67 cirrhotic patients who underwent hernia repair during the period of January 1998-December 2009 at the University Hospital of Sao Paulo were included. After meeting study criteria, a total of 56 patients who underwent 61 surgeries were included in the final analysis. Patient characteristics, morbidity (Clavien score), mortality, Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, MELD score, use of prosthetic material, and elective or emergency surgery have been analysed with regards to morbidity and 30-day mortality. Results The median MELD score of the patient population was 14 (range: 6 to 24). Emergency surgery was performed in 34 patients because of ruptured hernia (n = 13), incarceration (n = 10), strangulation (n = 4), and skin necrosis or ulceration (n = 7). Elective surgery was performed in 27 cases. After a multivariable analysis, emergency surgery (OR 7.31; p 0.017) and Child-Pugh C (OR 4.54; p 0.037) were risk factors for major complications. Moreover, emergency surgery was a unique independent risk factor for 30-day mortality (OR 10.83; p 0.028). Conclusions Higher morbidity and mortality are associated with emergency surgery in advanced cirrhotic patients. Therefore, using cirrhosis as a contraindication for hernia repair in all patients may be reconsidered in the future, especially after controlling ascites and in those patients with hernias that are becoming symptomatic or show signs of possible skin necrosis and rupture. Future prospective randomized studies are needed to confirm this surgical strategy.

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How Many Subjects Does It Take To Do A Regression Analysis.

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Numerous rules-of-thumb have been suggested for determining the minimum number of subjects required to conduct multiple regression analyses. These rules-of-thumb are evaluated by comparing their results against those based on power analyses for tests of hypotheses of multiple and partial correlations. The results did not support the use of rules-of-thumb that simply specify some constant (e.g., 100 subjects) as the minimum number of subjects or a minimum ratio of number of subjects (N) to number of predictors (m). Some support was obtained for a rule-of-thumb that N ≥ 50 + 8 m for the multiple correlation and N ≥104 + m for the partial correlation. However, the rule-of-thumb for the multiple correlation yields values too large for N when m ≥ 7, and both rules-of-thumb assume all studies have a medium-size relationship between criterion and predictors. Accordingly, a slightly more complex rule-of thumb is introduced that estimates minimum sample size as function of effect size as well as the number of predictors. It is argued that researchers should use methods to determine sample size that incorporate effect size.

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Risk factors for mortality after surgery in patients with cirrhosis.

Jamie R Stevens, Kenneth Offord, J A Talwalkar … (2007)

Current methods of predicting risk of postoperative mortality in patients with cirrhosis are suboptimal. The utility of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) in predicting mortality after surgery other than liver transplantation is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for postoperative mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis (N = 772) who underwent major digestive (n = 586), orthopedic (n = 107), or cardiovascular (n = 79) surgery were studied. Control groups of patients with cirrhosis included 303 undergoing minor surgical procedures and 562 ambulatory patients. Univariate and multivariable proportional hazards analyses were used to determine the relationship between risk factors and mortality. Patients undergoing major surgery were at increased risk for mortality up to 90 days postoperatively. By multivariable analysis, only MELD score, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, and age predicted mortality at 30 and 90 days, 1 year, and long-term, independently of type or year of surgery. Emergency surgery was the only independent predictor of duration of hospitalization postoperatively. Thirty-day mortality ranged from 5.7% (MELD score, 20). The relationship between MELD score and mortality persisted throughout the 20-year postoperative period. MELD score, age, and American Society of Anesthesiologists class can quantify the risk of mortality postoperatively in patients with cirrhosis, independently of the procedure performed. These factors can be used in determining operative mortality risk and whether elective surgical procedures can be delayed until after liver transplantation.