Probability of Detecting a Planetary Companion during a Microlensing Event

Abstract

The probability of detecting a planetary companion of a lensing star during a microlensing event toward the Galactic center, averaged over all relevant event and galactic parameters, when the planet-star mass ratio \(q=0.001\) has a maximum exceeding 10% at an orbit semimajor axis \(a\) near 1.5 AU for a uniform distribution of impact parameters. The maximum probability is raised to more than 20% for a distribution of source-lens impact parameters that is determined by the efficiency of event detection. The averaging procedures are carefully defined, and they determinine the dependence of the detection probabilities on several properties of the Galaxy. The probabilities scale approximately as \(\sqrt{q}\). A planet is assumed detectable if the perturbation of the single lens light curve exceeds \(2/(S/N)\) for at least 20 consecutive photometric points sometime during the event. Two meter telescopes with 60 second integrations in I-band with high time resolution photometry throughout the duration of an ongoing event are assumed. The probabilities are derived as a function of \(a\), where they remain significant for \(0.6<a<10\) AU. Dependence of the detection probabilities on the lens mass function, luminosity function of the source stars as modified by extinction, distribution of source-lens impact parameters, and the line of sight to the source are also determined, and the probabilities are averaged over the distribution of the projected planet position, the lens mass function, the distribution of impact parameters, the lens and source distances as weighted by their distributions along the line of sight and over the \(I\)-band apparent luminosity function of the sources. The extraction of the probabilility as a function of \(a\) for a particular \(q\) from empirical data is indicated.