Alejandro Soriano 1 , Rocío Montejano 2 , José Sanz-Moreno 3 , Juan Carlos Figueira 4 , Santiago Grau 5 , Robert Güerri-Fernández 6 , Antonio Castro-Gómez 7 , Inés Pérez-Román 8 , Álvaro Hidalgo-Vega 9 , 10 , Almudena González-Domínguez , 8
12 June 2021
Spain was one of the most affected countries during the first wave of COVID-19, having the highest mortality rate in Europe. The aim of this retrospective study is to estimate the impact that remdesivir—the first drug for COVID-19 approved in the EU—would have had in the first wave.
This study simulated the impact that remdesivir could have had on the Spanish National Health System (SNHS) capacity (bed occupancy) and the number of deaths that could have been prevented, based on two scenarios: a real-life scenario (without remdesivir) and an alternative scenario (with remdesivir). It considered the clinical results of the ACTT-1 trial in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and pneumonia who required supplemental oxygen. The occupancy rates in general wards and ICUs were estimated in both scenarios.
Remdesivir use could have prevented the admission of 2587 patients (43.75%) in the ICUs. It could have also increased the SNHS capacity in 5656 general wards beds and 1700 ICU beds, showing an increase in the number of beds available of 17.53% (95% CI 3.98%–24.42%) and 23.98% (95% CI 21.33%–28.22%), respectively, at the peak of the occupancy rates. Furthermore, remdesivir use could have prevented 7639 deaths due to COVID-19, which implies a 27.51% reduction (95% CI 14.25%–34.07%).
Remdesivir could have relieved the pressure on the SNHS and could have reduced the death toll, providing a better strategy for the management of COVID-19 during the first wave.