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      Controlling for the species-area effect supports constrained long-term Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate diversification

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          Abstract

          Variation in the geographic spread of fossil localities strongly biases inferences about the evolution of biodiversity, due to the ubiquitous scaling of species richness with area. This obscures answers to key questions, such as how tetrapods attained their tremendous extant diversity. Here, we address this problem by applying sampling standardization methods to spatial regions of equal size, within a global Mesozoic-early Palaeogene data set of non-flying terrestrial tetrapods. We recover no significant increase in species richness between the Late Triassic and the Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K/Pg) boundary, strongly supporting bounded diversification in Mesozoic tetrapods. An abrupt tripling of richness in the earliest Palaeogene suggests that this diversity equilibrium was reset following the K/Pg extinction. Spatial heterogeneity in sampling is among the most important biases of fossil data, but has often been overlooked. Our results indicate that controlling for variance in geographic spread in the fossil record significantly impacts inferred patterns of diversity through time.

          Abstract

          Species richness increases with area sampled, potentially confounding biodiversity patterns from the fossil record. Here, the authors standardize spatial sampling to control for this bias and show that terrestrial vertebrate diversification was bounded during the Mesozoic but that equilibria were reset following the K/Pg extinction.

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          Phanerozoic trends in the global diversity of marine invertebrates.

          It has previously been thought that there was a steep Cretaceous and Cenozoic radiation of marine invertebrates. This pattern can be replicated with a new data set of fossil occurrences representing 3.5 million specimens, but only when older analytical protocols are used. Moreover, analyses that employ sampling standardization and more robust counting methods show a modest rise in diversity with no clear trend after the mid-Cretaceous. Globally, locally, and at both high and low latitudes, diversity was less than twice as high in the Neogene as in the mid-Paleozoic. The ratio of global to local richness has changed little, and a latitudinal diversity gradient was present in the early Paleozoic.
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            Taxonomic Diversity during the Phanerozoic.

            D Raup (1972)
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              Effects of sampling standardization on estimates of Phanerozoic marine diversification.

              Global diversity curves reflect more than just the number of taxa that have existed through time: they also mirror variation in the nature of the fossil record and the way the record is reported. These sampling effects are best quantified by assembling and analyzing large numbers of locality-specific biotic inventories. Here, we introduce a new database of this kind for the Phanerozoic fossil record of marine invertebrates. We apply four substantially distinct analytical methods that estimate taxonomic diversity by quantifying and correcting for variation through time in the number and nature of inventories. Variation introduced by the use of two dramatically different counting protocols also is explored. We present sampling-standardized diversity estimates for two long intervals that sum to 300 Myr (Middle Ordovician-Carboniferous; Late Jurassic-Paleogene). Our new curves differ considerably from traditional, synoptic curves. For example, some of them imply unexpectedly low late Cretaceous and early Tertiary diversity levels. However, such factors as the current emphasis in the database on North America and Europe still obscure our view of the global history of marine biodiversity. These limitations will be addressed as the database and methods are refined.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group
                2041-1723
                22 May 2017
                2017
                : 8
                : 15381
                Affiliations
                [1 ]School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston , Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
                [2 ]Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford , Oxford OX1 3AN, UK
                [3 ]Department of Earth Sciences, University College London , London WC1E 6BT, UK
                Author notes
                Article
                ncomms15381
                10.1038/ncomms15381
                5458146
                28530240
                0e7f9491-dd3d-4fbd-8eae-8e9ea21de2df
                Copyright © 2017, The Author(s)

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                : 07 September 2016
                : 23 March 2017
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