The seroprevalence and trends of SARS-CoV-2 in Delhi, India: A repeated population-based seroepidemiological study

ABSTRACT

Background

Three rounds of a repeated cross-sectional serosurvey to estimate the seroprevalence and trends of SARS-CoV-2 were conducted from August-October’ 2020 in the state of Delhi in India in the general population aged ≥5 years.

Methods

The selection of participants was through a multi-stage sampling design from all the 11 districts and 280 wards of the city-state, with two-stage allocation proportional to population- size. Household selected was via systematic random sampling, and individual participant selection through the age-order procedure. The blood samples were screened using the IgG ELISA COVID-Kawach kit (August Round), and the ERBALISA COVID-19 IgG (September and October) rounds. The seroprevalence was estimated by applying the sampling weights based on age and sex with further adjustment for the assay-kit characteristics.

Results

A total of 4267 (n=15046), 4311 (n=17409), and 3829 (n=15015) positive tests indicative of the presence of IgG antibody to SARS-CoV-2 were observed during the August, September, and October 2020 serosurvey rounds, respectively. The adjusted seroprevalence declined from 28.39% (95% CI 27.65-29.14) (August) to 24.08% (95% CI 23.43-24.74) (September), and 24.71% (95% CI 24.01, 25.42%) (October). The antibody positivity was highest in the ≥50 and female age-group during all rounds of the serosurvey, while the decline was maximum among the younger age-group (5-17 years). On adjusted analysis, participants with lower per capita income, living in slums or overcrowded households, and those with diabetes comorbidity had significantly higher statistical odds of antibody positivity.

Conclusions

Despite high IgG seroprevalence, there was evidence for waning of antibody positivity with the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic, implying a potential reduction in population immunity, especially if also associated with the lack of trained T cell immunity.