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      Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

      , , , , ,
      Water Resources Research
      Wiley-Blackwell

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          The future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction

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            Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

            The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.
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              The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections.

              Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous climate models have been run for a common set of experiments, have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various scenarios. Those multi-model ensembles sample initial condition, parameter as well as structural uncertainties in the model design, and they have prompted a variety of approaches to quantify uncertainty in future climate in a probabilistic way. This paper outlines the motivation for using multi-model ensembles, reviews the methodologies published so far and compares their results for regional temperature projections. The challenges in interpreting multi-model results, caused by the lack of verification of climate projections, the problem of model dependence, bias and tuning as well as the difficulty in making sense of an 'ensemble of opportunity', are discussed in detail.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Water Resources Research
                Water Resour. Res.
                Wiley-Blackwell
                00431397
                August 2014
                August 2014
                : 50
                : 8
                : 6850-6873
                Article
                10.1002/2014WR015558
                0f62b4da-523d-4239-b0f3-c678d2f1beca
                © 2014

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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