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# Influence of climate variables on dengue fever occurrence in the southern region of Thailand

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PLOS Global Public Health
Public Library of Science

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### Abstract

The 3-5year epidemic cycle of dengue fever in Thailand makes it a major re-emerging public health problem resulting in being a burden in endemic areas. Although the Thai Ministry of Public Health adopted the WHO dengue control strategy, all dengue virus serotypes continue to circulate. Health officers and village health volunteers implement some intervention options but there is a need to ascertain most appropriate (or a combination of) interventions regarding the environment and contextual factors that may undermine the effectiveness of such interventions. This study aims to understand the dengue-climate relationship patterns at the district level in the southern region of Thailand from 2002 to 2018 by examining the statistical association between dengue incidence rate and eight environmental patterns, testing the hypothesis of equal incidence of these. Data on environmental variables and dengue reported cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat province situated in the south of Thailand from 2002 to 2018 were analysed to (1) detect the environmental factors that affect the risk of dengue infectious disease; to (2) determine if disease risk is increasing or decreasing over time; and to (3) identify the high-risk district areas for dengue cases that need to be targeted for interventions. To identify the predictors that have a high and significant impact on reported dengue infection, three steps of analysis were used. First, we used Partial Least Squares (PLS) Regression and Poisson Regression, a variant of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM). Negative co-efficient in correspondence with the PLS components suggests that sea-level pressure, wind speed, and pan evaporation are associated with dengue occurrence rate, while other variables were positively associated. Using the Akaike information criterion in the stepwise GLM, the filtered predictors were temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, and sea level pressure with the standardized coefficients showing that the most influential variable is cloud cover (three times more than temperature and precipitation). Also, dengue occurrence showed a constant negative response to the average increase in sea-level pressure values. In southern Thailand, the predictors that have been locally determined to drive dengue occurrence are temperature, rainfall, cloud cover, and sea-level pressure. These explanatory variables should have important future implications for epidemiological studies of mosquito-borne diseases, particularly at the district level. Predictive indicators guide effective and dynamic risk assessments, targeting pre-emptive interventions.

### Most cited references51

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### Economic Impact of Dengue Illness in the Americas

The growing burden of dengue in endemic countries and outbreaks in previously unaffected countries stress the need to assess the economic impact of this disease. This paper synthesizes existing studies to calculate the economic burden of dengue illness in the Americas from a societal perspective. Major data sources include national case reporting data from 2000 to 2007, prospective cost of illness studies, and analyses quantifying underreporting in national routine surveillance systems. Dengue illness in the Americas was estimated to cost $2.1 billion per year on average (in 2010 US dollars), with a range of$1–4 billion in sensitivity analyses and substantial year to year variation. The results highlight the substantial economic burden from dengue in the Americas. The burden for dengue exceeds that from other viral illnesses, such as human papillomavirus (HPV) or rotavirus. Because this study does not include some components (e.g., vector control), it may still underestimate total economic consequences of dengue.
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### Author and article information

###### Contributors
Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – original draft
Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draft
Role: Data curationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
Role: Funding acquisitionRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
Role: Editor
###### Journal
PLOS Glob Public Health
PLOS Glob Public Health
plos
PLOS Global Public Health
Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
2767-3375
20 April 2022
2022
: 2
: 4
###### Affiliations
[1 ] Environmental, Safety Technology and Health Program, School of Public Health, Walailak University, Thasala, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand
[2 ] División de Estudios de Postgrado, Universidad de la Sierra Juárez, Ixtlán de Juárez, Oaxaca, México
KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme Nairobi, KENYA
###### Author notes

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

‡ SY and WJ also contributed equally to this work.

###### Article
PGPH-D-21-00997
10.1371/journal.pgph.0000188
10022128
36962156
0f6a6a04-6c40-4bd4-b844-a3dc75a47cf9

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

###### Page count
Figures: 5, Tables: 3, Pages: 17
###### Funding
Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010034, Walailak University;
Award ID: CGS-RF-2020/09
Award Recipient :
This research work was partly funded by Walailak University Graduate Research Fund (contract number CGS-RF-2020/09). FIA received funding from Walailak University Graduate Research Fund. The funders had a role in study design and data collection.
###### Categories
Research Article
Medicine and Health Sciences
Medical Conditions
Tropical Diseases
Neglected Tropical Diseases
Dengue Fever
Medicine and Health Sciences
Medical Conditions
Infectious Diseases
Viral Diseases
Dengue Fever
Earth Sciences
Atmospheric Science
Meteorology
Clouds
Medicine and Health Sciences
Epidemiology
People and Places
Geographical Locations
Asia
Thailand
Earth Sciences
Atmospheric Science
Meteorology
Rain
Medicine and Health Sciences
Medical Conditions
Infectious Diseases
Disease Vectors
Insect Vectors
Mosquitoes
Aedes Aegypti
Biology and Life Sciences
Species Interactions
Disease Vectors
Insect Vectors
Mosquitoes
Aedes Aegypti
Biology and Life Sciences
Zoology
Entomology
Insects
Mosquitoes
Aedes Aegypti
Biology and Life Sciences
Organisms
Eukaryota
Animals
Invertebrates
Arthropoda
Insects
Mosquitoes
Aedes Aegypti
Biology and Life Sciences
Zoology
Animals
Invertebrates
Arthropoda
Insects
Mosquitoes
Aedes Aegypti
Medicine and Health Sciences
Epidemiology
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Medicine and Health Sciences
Medical Conditions
Infectious Diseases
Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Medicine and Health Sciences
Medical Conditions
Infectious Diseases