Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis

Abstract

The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies.

Author Summary

This study explores the spatial ecology of Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax disease, in Australia. Globally, anthrax is a neglected zoonotic disease that primarily affect herbivores and incidentally humans and all warm-blooded animals. Here, we used historic anthrax outbreaks for the period 1996–2013 and environmental factors in an ecological niche modelling framework to quantitatively define the ecological niche of B. anthracis using a genetic algorithm. This was projected onto the continental landscape of Australia to predict the geographic distribution of the pathogen. The ecological niche of B. anthracis is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions, which are geographically concentrated in two disjunct corridors: a dominant corridor paralleling the Eastern Highlands runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales, while another corridor was predicted in the southwest of Western Australia. These findings provide an estimate of the potential geographic distribution of B. anthracis, and can help inform anthrax disease surveillance across Australia.