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      Global sea level linked to global temperature

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      Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
      Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

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          Abstract

          We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880-2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990-2100.

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          Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbræ triggered by warm subsurface ocean waters

          David M Holland, Robert H Thomas, Brad de Young … (2008)
          Article 0 comments Cited 358 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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            A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise

            John A Church, Neil J. White (2006)
            Article 0 comments Cited 331 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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              Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise.

              Catia Domingues, John A Church, Neil J. White … (2008)
              Changes in the climate system's energy budget are predominantly revealed in ocean temperatures and the associated thermal expansion contribution to sea-level rise. Climate models, however, do not reproduce the large decadal variability in globally averaged ocean heat content inferred from the sparse observational database, even when volcanic and other variable climate forcings are included. The sum of the observed contributions has also not adequately explained the overall multi-decadal rise. Here we report improved estimates of near-global ocean heat content and thermal expansion for the upper 300 m and 700 m of the ocean for 1950-2003, using statistical techniques that allow for sparse data coverage and applying recent corrections to reduce systematic biases in the most common ocean temperature observations. Our ocean warming and thermal expansion trends for 1961-2003 are about 50 per cent larger than earlier estimates but about 40 per cent smaller for 1993-2003, which is consistent with the recognition that previously estimated rates for the 1990s had a positive bias as a result of instrumental errors. On average, the decadal variability of the climate models with volcanic forcing now agrees approximately with the observations, but the modelled multi-decadal trends are smaller than observed. We add our observational estimate of upper-ocean thermal expansion to other contributions to sea-level rise and find that the sum of contributions from 1961 to 2003 is about 1.5 +/- 0.4 mm yr(-1), in good agreement with our updated estimate of near-global mean sea-level rise (using techniques established in earlier studies) of 1.6 +/- 0.2 mm yr(-1).
              Article 0 comments Cited 256 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
                Abbreviated Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
                Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
                ISSN (Print): 0027-8424
                ISSN (Electronic): 1091-6490
                Publication date Created: December 22 2009
                Publication date Created: December 22 2009
                Publication date (Electronic): December 07 2009
                Publication date (Print): December 22 2009
                Volume: 106
                Issue: 51
                Pages: 21527-21532
                Article
                DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0907765106
                PMC ID: 2789754
                PubMed ID: 19995972
                SO-VID: 0f806c0c-0b49-4df9-b209-cfea73a01ed2
                Copyright © © 2009
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