The specificity of nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) used for early infant diagnosis (EID) of HIV infection is <100%, leading some HIV-uninfected infants to be incorrectly identified as HIV-infected. The World Health Organization recommends that infants undergo a second NAAT to confirm any positive test result, but implementation is limited. Our objective was to determine the impact and cost-effectiveness of confirmatory HIV testing for EID programmes in South Africa.
Using the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)–Pediatric model, we simulated EID testing at age 6 weeks for HIV-exposed infants without and with confirmatory testing. We assumed a NAAT cost of US$25, NAAT specificity of 99.6%, NAAT sensitivity of 100% for infants infected in pregnancy or at least 4 weeks prior to testing, and a mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rate at 12 months of 4.9%; we simulated guideline-concordant rates of testing uptake, result return, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (100%). After diagnosis, infants were linked to and retained in care for 10 years (false-positive) or lifelong (true-positive). All parameters were varied widely in sensitivity analyses. Outcomes included number of infants with false-positive diagnoses linked to ART per 1,000 ART initiations, life expectancy (LE, in years) and per-person lifetime HIV-related healthcare costs. Both without and with confirmatory testing, LE was 26.2 years for HIV-infected infants and 61.4 years for all HIV-exposed infants; clinical outcomes for truly infected infants did not differ by strategy. Without confirmatory testing, 128/1,000 ART initiations were false-positive diagnoses; with confirmatory testing, 1/1,000 ART initiations were false-positive diagnoses. Because confirmatory testing averted costly HIV care and ART in truly HIV-uninfected infants, it was cost-saving: total cost US$1,790/infant tested, compared to US$1,830/infant tested without confirmatory testing. Confirmatory testing remained cost-saving unless NAAT cost exceeded US$400 or the HIV-uninfected status of infants incorrectly identified as infected was ascertained and ART stopped within 3 months of starting. Limitations include uncertainty in the data used in the model, which we examined with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We also excluded clinical harms to HIV-uninfected infants incorrectly treated with ART after false-positive diagnosis (e.g., medication toxicities); including these outcomes would further increase the value of confirmatory testing.
Without confirmatory testing, in settings with MTCT rates similar to that of South Africa, more than 10% of infants who initiate ART may reflect false-positive diagnoses. Confirmatory testing prevents inappropriate HIV diagnosis, is cost-saving, and should be adopted in all EID programmes.
Lorna Dunning examine the cost-effectiveness of confirmatory testing in early infant HIV diagnosis programmes in South Africa.
Paediatric HIV remains a substantial burden in many low-resource countries, with 170,000 infants infected with HIV in 2015. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends virological testing of HIV-exposed infants by 6 weeks of life, with immediate referral of those who test positive for initiation of HIV care to reduce infant mortality associated with HIV.
Despite reported specificities greater than 99%, virological assays still have the possibility for false-positive diagnoses. The use of confirmatory testing is therefore strongly recommended in early infant diagnosis (EID) programmes.
A recent policy survey by WHO demonstrated that implementation of confirmatory testing in EID programmes is limited, with 38% (8/21) of high-burden countries not including confirmatory testing for infants in their guidelines.
Cost is often cited as a key barrier; many low-resource countries struggle to implement EID programmes due to the high costs of virological tests.
Our study was designed to estimate the clinical and economic value of confirmatory testing in EID programmes.
We used a computer simulation model of paediatric HIV infection, diagnosis, and treatment to examine the clinical and economic outcomes of EID programmes without and with confirmatory testing in South Africa.
We found there was no clinical difference in the life expectancy or 1-year survival of HIV-infected infants between the 2 strategies, but without confirmatory testing, in settings with a mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rate similar to that of South Africa, over 10% of infants initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) would do so inappropriately as a result of a false-positive diagnosis.
Confirmatory testing averted costly HIV care and ART in truly HIV-uninfected infants, leading the confirmatory testing strategy to be cost-saving compared to without confirmatory testing in all reasonable scenarios.
ART should be initiated after the first positive test result; when ART was not initiated until the return of the confirmatory result, mortality during the delay to ART initiation substantially reduced survival for HIV-infected infants.
Use of confirmatory testing in EID programmes, with ART initiation after the first positive result, substantially reduces the proportion of infants incorrectly diagnosed as HIV-infected and initiated on ART.
Confirmatory testing is cost-saving under a wide range of scenarios.
Confirmatory testing should be implemented in settings using virological assays for EID.