Logistic approximations used to describe new outbreaks in the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

In this investigation I used the Logistic Model to fit the COVID-19 pandemic data for some countries. The data modeled is the death numbers per day in China, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Spain and United States. Considering the current growth rate of the pandemic, it was possible to show that the death toll should be between 3,277-3,327 deaths in China, 2,035-2,107 in Iran, 120-134 in South Korea, 11,227-12,793 in Italy and 6,217-7,405 in Spain. Also, with this toy model it was possible to show a clear emergence of a new outbreak within the same country (Iran, China and the United States). The growth rate of deaths found for South Korea was the lowest among the countries studied (\(0.14701\pm0.00923\)) and for China (\(0.16667\pm0.00284\)). Italy (\(0.22594\pm0.00599\)) and Spain (\(0.31213\pm0.02337\)) had the highest rates and in the second wave in Iran (\(0.37893\pm0.02712\)).