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      Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental‐scale review of climate‐driven species redistribution in marine systems

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          Abstract

          Climate‐driven changes in the distribution of species are a pervasive and accelerating impact of climate change, and despite increasing research effort in this rapidly emerging field, much remains unknown or poorly understood. We lack a holistic understanding of patterns and processes at local, regional and global scales, with detailed explorations of range shifts in the southern hemisphere particularly under‐represented. Australian waters encompass the world's third largest marine jurisdiction, extending from tropical to sub‐Antarctic climate zones, and have waters warming at rates twice the global average in the north and two to four times in the south. Here, we report the results of a multi‐taxon continent‐wide review describing observed and predicted species redistribution around the Australian coastline, and highlight critical gaps in knowledge impeding our understanding of, and response to, these considerable changes. Since range shifts were first reported in the region in 2003, 198 species from nine Phyla have been documented shifting their distribution, 87.3% of which are shifting poleward. However, there is little standardization of methods or metrics reported in observed or predicted shifts, and both are hindered by a lack of baseline data. Our results demonstrate the importance of historical data sets and underwater visual surveys, and also highlight that approximately one‐fifth of studies incorporated citizen science. These findings emphasize the important role the public has had, and can continue to play, in understanding the impact of climate change. Most documented shifts are of coastal fish species in sub‐tropical and temperate systems, while tropical systems in general were poorly explored. Moreover, most distributional changes are only described at the poleward boundary, with few studies considering changes at the warmer, equatorward range limit. Through identifying knowledge gaps and research limitations, this review highlights future opportunities for strategic research effort to improve the representation of Australian marine species and systems in climate‐impact research.

          Abstract

          With the continued rise in sea surface temperature, species redistributions are becoming more commonplace around the world. Around Australia, at least 198 marine species, from 9 phyla, are redistributing their distributions, 87% of which are shifting poleward, in accordance with climate change.

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          Most cited references124

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          Ecology. Physiology and climate change.

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            Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent?

            Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to have significant impacts on the world's climate on a timescale of decades to centuries. Evidence from long-term monitoring studies is now accumulating and suggests that the climate of the past few decades is anomalous compared with past climate variation, and that recent climatic and atmospheric trends are already affecting species physiology, distribution and phenology.
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              A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems.

              Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                cgervais9249@gmail.com
                gretta.pecl@utas.edu.au
                Journal
                Glob Chang Biol
                Glob Chang Biol
                10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486
                GCB
                Global Change Biology
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                1354-1013
                1365-2486
                07 May 2021
                July 2021
                : 27
                : 14 ( doiID: 10.1111/gcb.v27.14 )
                : 3200-3217
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Department of Biological Sciences Macquarie University Sydney NSW Australia
                [ 2 ] Fisheries Research NSW Department of Primary Industries Coffs Harbour NSW Australia
                [ 3 ] Southern Cross University National Marine Science Centre Coffs Harbour NSW Australia
                [ 4 ] Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart Tas Australia
                [ 5 ] Centre for Marine Socioecology University of Tasmania Hobart Tas Australia
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Correspondence

                Connor R. Gervais, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

                Email: cgervais9249@ 123456gmail.com

                Gretta T. Pecl, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.

                Email: gretta.pecl@ 123456utas.edu.au

                Article
                GCB15634
                10.1111/gcb.15634
                8251616
                33835618
                10553350-945e-47d1-8709-edab45b8bc51
                © 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                Page count
                Figures: 6, Tables: 1, Pages: 18, Words: 14754
                Product
                Funding
                Funded by: Australian Research Council , open-funder-registry 10.13039/501100000923;
                Award ID: FT140100596
                Categories
                Research Review
                Research Review
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                July 2021
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:6.0.4 mode:remove_FC converted:02.07.2021

                citizen science,climate change,ecosystem reorganization,historical data,ocean warming,range contraction,range extension,range shift

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