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      Evaluation of the maximum likelihood estimate of the evolutionary tree topologies from DNA sequence data, and the branching order in hominoidea.

      Journal of Molecular Evolution

      Animals, Software, Probability, genetics, Primates, Models, Statistical, Models, Genetic, Humans, Hominidae, DNA, Biological Evolution, Base Sequence

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          Abstract

          A maximum likelihood method for inferring evolutionary trees from DNA sequence data was developed by Felsenstein (1981). In evaluating the extent to which the maximum likelihood tree is a significantly better representation of the true tree, it is important to estimate the variance of the difference between log likelihood of different tree topologies. Bootstrap resampling can be used for this purpose (Hasegawa et al. 1988; Hasegawa and Kishino 1989), but it imposes a great computation burden. To overcome this difficulty, we developed a new method for estimating the variance by expressing it explicitly. The method was applied to DNA sequence data from primates in order to evaluate the maximum likelihood branching order among Hominoidea. It was shown that, although the orangutan is convincingly placed as an outgroup of a human and African apes clade, the branching order among human, chimpanzee, and gorilla cannot be determined confidently from the DNA sequence data presently available when the evolutionary rate constancy is not assumed.

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          Most cited references 37

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          A new look at the statistical model identification

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            A simple method for estimating evolutionary rates of base substitutions through comparative studies of nucleotide sequences.

             Motoo Kimura (1980)
            Some simple formulae were obtained which enable us to estimate evolutionary distances in terms of the number of nucleotide substitutions (and, also, the evolutionary rates when the divergence times are known). In comparing a pair of nucleotide sequences, we distinguish two types of differences; if homologous sites are occupied by different nucleotide bases but both are purines or both pyrimidines, the difference is called type I (or "transition" type), while, if one of the two is a purine and the other is a pyrimidine, the difference is called type II (or "transversion" type). Letting P and Q be respectively the fractions of nucleotide sites showing type I and type II differences between two sequences compared, then the evolutionary distance per site is K = -(1/2) ln [(1-2P-Q) square root of 1-2Q]. The evolutionary rate per year is then given by k = K/(2T), where T is the time since the divergence of the two sequences. If only the third codon positions are compared, the synonymous component of the evolutionary base substitutions per site is estimated by K'S = -(1/2) ln (1-2P-Q). Also, formulae for standard errors were obtained. Some examples were worked out using reported globin sequences to show that synonymous substitutions occur at much higher rates than amino acid-altering substitutions in evolution.
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              Confidence Limits on Phylogenies: An Approach Using the Bootstrap

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                2509717

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