A review of the effects of climate change on riverine flooding in subtropical and tropical regions

Abstract

Tropical and subtropical regions can be particularly severely affected by flooding. Climate change is expected to lead to more intense precipitation in many regions of the world, increasing the frequency and magnitude of flood events. This paper presents a review of studies assessing the impacts of climate change on riverine flooding in the world's tropical and subtropical regions. A systematic quantitative approach was used to evaluate the literature. The majority of studies reported increases in flooding under climate change, with the most consistent increases predicted for South Asia, South East Asia, and the western Amazon. Results were more varied for Latin America and Africa where there was a notable paucity of studies. Our review points to the need for further studies in these regions as well as in Australia, in small to mid-sized catchments, and in rapidly urbanising catchments in the developing world. Adoption of non-stationary flood analysis techniques and improved site-specific socio-economic and environmental model scenarios were identified as important future directions for research. Data accessibility and mitigation of model uncertainty were recognised as the principal issues faced by researchers investigating the impacts of climate change on tropical and subtropical rivers.