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      Pollination crisis Down‐Under: Has Australasia dodged the bullet?

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          Abstract

          Since mid‐1990s, concerns have increased about a human‐induced “pollination crisis.” Threats have been identified to animals that act as plant pollinators, plants pollinated by these animals, and consequently human well‐being. Threatening processes include loss of natural habitat, climate change, pesticide use, pathogen spread, and introduced species. However, concern has mostly been during last 10–15 years and from Europe and North America, with Australasia, known as Down‐Under, receiving little attention. So perhaps Australasia has “dodged the bullet”? We systematically reviewed the published literature relating to the “pollination crisis” via Web of Science, focusing on issues amenable to this approach. Across these issues, we found a steep increase in publications over the last few decades and a major geographic bias towards Europe and North America, with relatively little attention in Australasia. While publications from Australasia are underrepresented, factors responsible elsewhere for causing the “pollination crisis” commonly occur in Australasia, so this lack of coverage probably reflects a lack of awareness rather than the absence of a problem. In other words, Australasia has not “dodged the bullet” and should take immediate action to address and mitigate its own “pollination crisis.” Sensible steps would include increased taxonomic work on suspected plant pollinators, protection for pollinator populations threatened with extinction, establishing long‐term monitoring of plant–pollinator relationships, incorporating pollination into sustainable agriculture, restricting the use of various pesticides, adopting an Integrated Pest and Pollinator Management approach, and developing partnerships with First Nations peoples for research, conservation and management of plants and their pollinators. Appropriate Government policy, funding and regulation could help.

          Abstract

          The pollination crisis has relatively little attention in Australasia or Down Under, in comparison with Europe and North America, suggesting that this region may have escaped the problem or dodged the bullet. However, factors underlying the pollination crisis commonly occur in Australasia, and so the lack of concern there reflects lack of awareness and is not justified. Consequently, Australasia should immediately address and mitigate its own pollination crisis, facilitated through policy, regulation, and funding.

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          Most cited references124

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          Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents

          One aspect of climate change is an increasing number of days with extreme heat. Soroye et al. analyzed a large dataset of bumble bee occurrences across North America and Europe and found that an increasing frequency of unusually hot days is increasing local extinction rates, reducing colonization and site occupancy, and decreasing species richness within a region, independent of land-use change or condition (see the Perspective by Bridle and van Rensburg). As average temperatures continue to rise, bumble bees may be faced with an untenable increase in frequency of extreme temperatures. Science , this issue p. [Related article:] 685 ; see also p. [Related article:] 626 An increasing frequency of hot days results in bumble bee decline. Climate change could increase species’ extinction risk as temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species’ historically observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism altered likelihoods of bumble bee species’ extinction or colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts species’ local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area, and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially explicit predictions of climate change–related population extinction-colonization dynamics within species that explains observed patterns of geographical range loss and expansion across continents. Increasing frequencies of temperatures that exceed historically observed tolerances help explain widespread bumble bee species decline. This mechanism may also contribute to biodiversity loss more generally.
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            Global growth and stability of agricultural yield decrease with pollinator dependence.

            Human welfare depends on the amount and stability of agricultural production, as determined by crop yield and cultivated area. Yield increases asymptotically with the resources provided by farmers' inputs and environmentally sensitive ecosystem services. Declining yield growth with increased inputs prompts conversion of more land to cultivation, but at the risk of eroding ecosystem services. To explore the interdependence of agricultural production and its stability on ecosystem services, we present and test a general graphical model, based on Jensen's inequality, of yield-resource relations and consider implications for land conversion. For the case of animal pollination as a resource influencing crop yield, this model predicts that incomplete and variable pollen delivery reduces yield mean and stability (inverse of variability) more for crops with greater dependence on pollinators. Data collected by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations during 1961-2008 support these predictions. Specifically, crops with greater pollinator dependence had lower mean and stability in relative yield and yield growth, despite global yield increases for most crops. Lower yield growth was compensated by increased land cultivation to enhance production of pollinator-dependent crops. Area stability also decreased with pollinator dependence, as it correlated positively with yield stability among crops. These results reveal that pollen limitation hinders yield growth of pollinator-dependent crops, decreasing temporal stability of global agricultural production, while promoting compensatory land conversion to agriculture. Although we examined crop pollination, our model applies to other ecosystem services for which the benefits to human welfare decelerate as the maximum is approached.
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              A global-scale expert assessment of drivers and risks associated with pollinator decline

              Pollinator decline has attracted global attention and substantial efforts are underway to respond through national pollinator strategies and action plans. These policy responses require clarity on what is driving pollinator decline and what risks it generates for society in different parts of the world. Using a formal expert elicitation process, we evaluated the relative regional and global importance of eight drivers of pollinator decline and ten consequent risks to human well-being. Our results indicate that global policy responses should focus on reducing pressure from changes in land cover and configuration, land management and pesticides, as these were considered very important drivers in most regions. We quantify how the importance of drivers and risks from pollinator decline, differ among regions. For example, losing access to managed pollinators was considered a serious risk only for people in North America, whereas yield instability in pollinator-dependent crops was classed as a serious or high risk in four regions but only a moderate risk in Europe and North America. Overall, perceived risks were substantially higher in the Global South. Despite extensive research on pollinator decline, our analysis reveals considerable scientific uncertainty about what this means for human society.

                Author and article information

                Contributors
                renzongxin@mail.kib.ac.cn
                Journal
                Ecol Evol
                Ecol Evol
                10.1002/(ISSN)2045-7758
                ECE3
                Ecology and Evolution
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                2045-7758
                30 October 2023
                November 2023
                : 13
                : 11 ( doiID: 10.1002/ece3.v13.11 )
                : e10639
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] CAS Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming China
                [ 2 ] School of Natural Sciences Macquarie University Ryde New South Wales Australia
                [ 3 ] School of Biological Sciences & Biotechnology Murdoch University Perth Western Australia Australia
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Correspondence

                Zong‐Xin Ren, CAS Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, PR China.

                Email: renzongxin@ 123456mail.kib.ac.cn

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9760-987X
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1164-6099
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7265-065X
                Article
                ECE310639 ECE-2023-03-00389.R1
                10.1002/ece3.10639
                10615657
                1171b3ce-afd1-4e1e-a1cd-3ac339a19084
                © 2023 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 17 August 2023
                : 09 March 2023
                : 09 October 2023
                Page count
                Figures: 2, Tables: 4, Pages: 14, Words: 10543
                Funding
                Funded by: Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative
                Award ID: 2020VBA0004
                Funded by: Chinese National Natural Science Foundation
                Award ID: 31971570
                Award ID: 32271594
                Funded by: Talent Young Scientist Program of Yunnan Province
                Award ID: YNWR‐QNBJ‐2019‐055
                Categories
                Ecosystem Services Studies
                Review Article
                Review Articles
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                November 2023
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:6.3.4 mode:remove_FC converted:30.10.2023

                Evolutionary Biology
                agricultural intensification,crop pollination,food security,pesticide use,pollination services,pollinator decline,threatened species,urbanization

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