Overall survival in patients over 40 years old with surgically resected pancreatic carcinoma: a SEER-based nomogram analysis

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Abstract

Background

The aim of this study was to identify the determinants of overall survival (OS) within patients over 40 years old with surgically resected pancreatic carcinoma (PC), and to develop a nomogram with the intention of OS predicting.

Methods

A total of 6341 patients of 40 years of age or later with surgically resected PC between 2010 and 2015 were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and randomly assigned into training set (4242 cases) and validation set (2099 cases). A nomogram was constructed for predicting 1-, 2- and 3-years OS based on univairate and multivariate Cox regression. The C-index and calibration plot were adopted to assess the nomogram performance.

Results

Our analysis showed that age, location of carcinoma in pancreas, tumor grade, TNM stage, size of carcinoma together with lymph node ratio (LNR) were considered to be independent overall survival predictors. A nomogram based on these six factors was developed with C-index being 0.680 (95%CI: 0.667–0.693). All calibration curves of OS fitted well. The OS curves stratified by nomogram-predicted probability score (≥20, 10–19 and < 10) demonstrated statistically significant difference not only within training set but also in validation set.

Conclusions

The present nomogram for OS predicting can serve as the efficacious survival-predicting model and assist in accurate decision-making for patients over 40 years old with surgically resected PC.

Related collections

Most cited references 24

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Perioperative CA19-9 levels can predict stage and survival in patients with resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Alona Muzikansky, Sarah P. Thayer, Andrew Warshaw … (2006)

Different prognostic factors stratify patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The purpose of this study was to determine whether preoperative CA19-9 levels can predict stage of disease or survival and whether a change in preoperative to postoperative CA19-9 or the postoperative CA19-9 predicts overall survival. Four hundred twenty-four consecutive patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma underwent resection between January 1, 1985 and January 1, 2004. Of the patients with a bilirubin less than 2 mg/dL, 176 had preoperative CA19-9 values, and 111 had pre- and postoperative CA19-9 values. Survival was measured from the first postoperative CA19-9 level measured (median, 39 days) until death or last follow-up. A multivariate failure time model was fit using clinical, operative, pathologic, and adjuvant treatment characteristics, and a categorization was defined by the values and changes in CA19-9 before and after surgery. Of the 176 patients, 128 (73%) had T3 lesions, and 99 (56%) had N1 disease; 138 patients (78%) underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy. Median preoperative CA19-9 levels were lower in N0 patients compared with patients with positive nodes (nine v 164 U/mL, respectively; nonparametric P = .06) and in T1/T2 patients versus T3 patients (41 v 162 U/mL, respectively; P = .03). Median follow-up time (n = 111) was 1.8 years (range, 1 to 12.9 years), with overall actuarial 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of 70%, 36%, and 30%, respectively. Significant predictors of survival on multivariate analysis included a decrease in CA19-9 (P = .0005), negative lymph nodes (P = .001), lower T stage (P = .0008), and postoperative CA19-9 less than 200 U/mL (P = .0007). In patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma, preoperative CA19-9 correlates with stage of disease. Both a postoperative decrease in CA19-9 and a postoperative CA19-9 value of less than 200 U/mL are strong independent predictors of survival, even after adjusting for stage. CA19-9 levels should be included in a patient's perioperative care and should be considered for prognostic nomograms.

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Impact of total lymph node count and lymph node ratio on staging and survival after pancreatectomy for pancreatic adenocarcinoma: a large, population-based analysis.

Mark B Slidell, David Chang, John L. Cameron … (2008)

Based on data from other malignancies, the number of lymph nodes evaluated and the ratio of metastatic to examined lymph nodes (LNR) may be important predictors of survival. LNR has never been investigated in a large population-based study of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify 4005 patients who underwent resection for pancreatic adenocarcinoma from 1988 to 2003. The effect of total lymph node count and LNR on survival was examined using univariate and multivariate analyses. The median number of lymph nodes examined was seven; 390 (10.1%) patients had no lymph nodes examined. Of those patients who had at least one lymph node examined, 1507 (43.3%) had no lymph node metastases (N0) and 1971 (56.7%) had metastatic nodal disease (N1). Overall median survival was 13 months, and 5-year survival was 6.8%. N1 disease was associated with a worse 5-year survival compared with N0 disease (4.3 vs 11.3%, respectively, P 0-0.2, 15 months; LNR > 0.2-0.4, 12 months; LNR > 0.4, 10 months) (P < .001). Most patients have an inadequate number of lymph nodes evaluated following pancreatic surgery. N0 patients who have fewer than 12 lymph nodes examined may be understaged. In patients with N1 disease, LNR may better substratify patients with regard to prognosis.

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Impact of lymph node ratio on survival in patients with pancreatic and periampullary cancer.

J Tol, L. Brosens, S. van Dieren … (2015)

According to some studies, the number of lymph nodes with metastases in relation to the total number of removed lymph nodes, the lymph node ratio (LNR), is one of the most powerful predictors of survival after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. However, contradictory results have been reported, and small sample sizes of the cohorts and different definitions of a microscopic positive resection margin (R1) hamper the interpretation of data. The predictive value of LNR for 3-year survival was assessed using a Cox proportional hazards model. From 1992 to 2012, all patients with pancreatic and periampullary cancer operated on with pancreatoduodenectomy were selected from a database. Clinicopathological characteristics were analysed. Microscopic positive resection margin was defined as the microscopic presence of tumour cells within 1 mm of the margins. A nomogram was created. Some 760 patients were included. Predictive factors for death in 350 patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma included in the nomogram were: R1 resection (hazard ratio (HR) 1·55, 95 per cent c.i. 1·07 to 2·25), poor tumour differentiation (HR 2·78, 1·40 to 5·52), LNR above 0·18 (HR 1·75, 1·13 to 2·70) and no adjuvant therapy (HR 1·54, 1·01 to 2·34). The C statistic was 0·658 (0·632 to 0·698), and calibration was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) = 5·67, P =0·773). LNR and poor tumour differentiation (HR 4·51 and 3·30 respectively) were also predictive in patients with distal common bile duct (CBD) cancer. LNR, R1 resection and jaundice were predictors of death in patients with ampullary cancer (HR 7·82, 2·68 and 1·93 respectively). LNR is a common predictor of poor survival in pancreatic, distal CBD and ampullary cancer. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Jian Li: 86 21 53305526 , nclijian@163.com

Leshan Liu: chenmin0517@126.com

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMC Cancer

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): BMC Cancer

Title: BMC Cancer

Publisher: BioMed Central (London )

ISSN (Electronic): 1471-2407

Publication date (Electronic): 23 July 2019

Publication date PMC-release: 23 July 2019

Publication date Collection: 2019

Volume: 19

Electronic Location Identifier: 726

Affiliations

ISNI 0000 0004 0368 8293, GRID grid.16821.3c, Clinical Research Center, , Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, ; 197 Ruijin Er Road, Huangpu District, Shanghai, 200025 China

Article

Publisher ID: 5958

DOI: 10.1186/s12885-019-5958-9

PMC ID: 6651947

PubMed ID: 31337369

SO-VID: 117cffbf-a26e-4516-bc70-5985a33c3abb

License:

Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

History

Date received : 10 May 2019

Date accepted : 18 July 2019

Funding

Funded by: Shanghai Shenkang hospital development center

Award ID: SHDC12018629

Custom metadata

ScienceOpen disciplines: Oncology & Radiotherapy

Keywords: pancreatic carcinoma,prognosis,overall survival,nomogram

Data availability:

ScienceOpen disciplines: Oncology & Radiotherapy

Keywords: pancreatic carcinoma, prognosis, overall survival, nomogram

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Overall survival in patients over 40 years old with surgically resected pancreatic carcinoma: a SEER-based nomogram analysis

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