Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017

Significance Statement

We evaluate the state of the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last four decades using a comprehensive, precise satellite record and output products from a regional atmospheric climate model to document its impact on sea-level rise. The mass loss is dominated by enhanced glacier flow in areas closest to warm, salty, subsurface circumpolar deep water, including East Antarctica, which has been a major contributor over the entire period. The same sectors are likely to dominate sea-level rise from Antarctica in decades to come as enhanced polar westerlies push more circumpolar deep water toward the glaciers.

Abstract

We use updated drainage inventory, ice thickness, and ice velocity data to calculate the grounding line ice discharge of 176 basins draining the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1979 to 2017. We compare the results with a surface mass balance model to deduce the ice sheet mass balance. The total mass loss increased from 40 $\pm$ 9 Gt/y in 1979–1990 to 50 $\pm$ 14 Gt/y in 1989–2000, 166 $\pm$ 18 Gt/y in 1999–2009, and 252 $\pm$ 26 Gt/y in 2009–2017. In 2009–2017, the mass loss was dominated by the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea sectors, in West Antarctica (159 $\pm$ 8 Gt/y), Wilkes Land, in East Antarctica (51 $\pm$ 13 Gt/y), and West and Northeast Peninsula (42 $\pm$ 5 Gt/y). The contribution to sea-level rise from Antarctica averaged 3.6 $\pm$ 0.5 mm per decade with a cumulative 14.0 $\pm$ 2.0 mm since 1979, including 6.9 $\pm$ 0.6 mm from West Antarctica, 4.4 $\pm$ 0.9 mm from East Antarctica, and 2.5 $\pm$ 0.4 mm from the Peninsula (i.e., East Antarctica is a major participant in the mass loss). During the entire period, the mass loss concentrated in areas closest to warm, salty, subsurface, circumpolar deep water (CDW), that is, consistent with enhanced polar westerlies pushing CDW toward Antarctica to melt its floating ice shelves, destabilize the glaciers, and raise sea level.