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      Tundra Underlain By Thawing Permafrost Persistently Emits Carbon to the Atmosphere Over 15 Years of Measurements

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          RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

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            A meta-analysis of the response of soil respiration, net nitrogen mineralization, and aboveground plant growth to experimental ecosystem warming

            Climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions is predicted to raise the mean global temperature by 1.0-3.5°C in the next 50-100 years. The direct and indirect effects of this potential increase in temperature on terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem processes are likely to be complex and highly varied in time and space. The Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme has recently launched a Network of Ecosystem Warming Studies, the goals of which are to integrate and foster research on ecosystem-level effects of rising temperature. In this paper, we use meta-analysis to synthesize data on the response of soil respiration, net N mineralization, and aboveground plant productivity to experimental ecosystem warming at 32 research sites representing four broadly defined biomes, including high (latitude or altitude) tundra, low tundra, grassland, and forest. Warming methods included electrical heat-resistance ground cables, greenhouses, vented and unvented field chambers, overhead infrared lamps, and passive night-time warming. Although results from individual sites showed considerable variation in response to warming, results from the meta-analysis showed that, across all sites and years, 2-9 years of experimental warming in the range 0.3-6.0°C significantly increased soil respiration rates by 20% (with a 95% confidence interval of 18-22%), net N mineralization rates by 46% (with a 95% confidence interval of 30-64%), and plant productivity by 19% (with a 95% confidence interval of 15-23%). The response of soil respiration to warming was generally larger in forested ecosystems compared to low tundra and grassland ecosystems, and the response of plant productivity was generally larger in low tundra ecosystems than in forest and grassland ecosystems. With the exception of aboveground plant productivity, which showed a greater positive response to warming in colder ecosystems, the magnitude of the response of these three processes to experimental warming was not generally significantly related to the geographic, climatic, or environmental variables evaluated in this analysis. This underscores the need to understand the relative importance of specific factors (such as temperature, moisture, site quality, vegetation type, successional status, land-use history, etc.) at different spatial and temporal scales, and suggests that we should be cautious in "scaling up" responses from the plot and site level to the landscape and biome level. Overall, ecosystem-warming experiments are shown to provide valuable insights on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated temperature.
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              Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change.

              Significantly more carbon is stored in the world's soils--including peatlands, wetlands and permafrost--than is present in the atmosphere. Disagreement exists, however, regarding the effects of climate change on global soil carbon stocks. If carbon stored belowground is transferred to the atmosphere by a warming-induced acceleration of its decomposition, a positive feedback to climate change would occur. Conversely, if increases of plant-derived carbon inputs to soils exceed increases in decomposition, the feedback would be negative. Despite much research, a consensus has not yet emerged on the temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition. Unravelling the feedback effect is particularly difficult, because the diverse soil organic compounds exhibit a wide range of kinetic properties, which determine the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of their decomposition. Moreover, several environmental constraints obscure the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of substrate decomposition, causing lower observed 'apparent' temperature sensitivity, and these constraints may, themselves, be sensitive to climate.
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                Author and article information

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                Journal
                Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
                J Geophys Res Biogeosci
                American Geophysical Union (AGU)
                2169-8953
                2169-8961
                June 2021
                June 08 2021
                June 2021
                : 126
                : 6
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Department of Biological Sciences Northern Arizona University Flagstaff AZ USA
                [2 ]School of Forest, Fisheries, and Geomatics Sciences University of Florida Gainesville FL USA
                [3 ]School of Natural Resources and Environment University of Florida Gainesville FL USA
                [4 ]University of Texas El Paso TX USA
                [5 ]Departamento de Biología y Geología Física y Química Inorgánica Escuela Superior de Ciencias Experimentales y Tecnología Universidad Rey Juan Carlos Móstoles Spain
                [6 ]Instituto de Ciencias Agrarias Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Madrid Spain
                [7 ]University of Alaska Fairbanks AK USA
                [8 ]Denali National Park and Preserve Denali Park AK USA
                [9 ]Yale School of the Environment Yale University New Haven CT USA
                Article
                10.1029/2020JG006044
                128754e2-10f8-4441-a962-7f764489e0d8
                © 2021

                http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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