Gregory A. Roth , MD, MPH a , ∗ , Catherine Johnson , PhD a , Amanuel Abajobir , MPH b , Foad Abd-Allah , MD c , Semaw Ferede Abera , MSc d , Gebre Abyu , MS d , Muktar Ahmed , MPH, MBA e , Baran Aksut , MD f , Tahiya Alam , MPH a , Khurshid Alam , PhD g , François Alla , PhD h , Nelson Alvis-Guzman , PhD i , Stephen Amrock , MD j , Hossein Ansari , PhD k , Johan Ärnlöv , PhD l , Hamid Asayesh , PhD m , Tesfay Mehari Atey , MSc d , Leticia Avila-Burgos , PhD n , Ashish Awasthi , MSc o , Amitava Banerjee , DPhil p , Aleksandra Barac , PhD q , Till Bärnighausen , MD r , Lars Barregard , MD s , Neeraj Bedi , MD t , Ezra Belay Ketema , MSc d , Derrick Bennett , PhD u , Gebremedhin Berhe , MPH d , Zulfiqar Bhutta , PhD, MBBS v , Shimelash Bitew , MPH w , Jonathan Carapetis , MBBS, PhD x , Juan Jesus Carrero , PhD y , Deborah Carvalho Malta , MD, PhD z , Carlos Andres Castañeda-Orjuela , MSc aa , Jacqueline Castillo-Rivas , MPH bb , Ferrán Catalá-López , PhD cc , Jee-Young Choi , PhD dd , Hanne Christensen , DMSCi ee , Massimo Cirillo , MD ff , Leslie Cooper Jr. , MD gg , Michael Criqui , MD, MPH hh , David Cundiff , MD ii , Albertino Damasceno , PhD jj , Lalit Dandona , MD a , kk , Rakhi Dandona , PhD a , kk , Kairat Davletov , MD, PhD, MPH ll , Samath Dharmaratne , MD mm , Prabhakaran Dorairaj , MD, DM, MSc nn , Manisha Dubey , MPhil oo , Rebecca Ehrenkranz , MPH a , Maysaa El Sayed Zaki , MD, PhD pp , Emerito Jose A. Faraon , MD qq , Alireza Esteghamati , MD rr , Talha Farid , MD ss , Maryam Farvid , PhD r , Valery Feigin , PhD tt , Eric L. Ding , ScD r , Gerry Fowkes , PhD uu , Tsegaye Gebrehiwot , MPH e , Richard Gillum , MD r , Audra Gold , MSc a , Philimon Gona , PhD vv , Rajeev Gupta , MD, PhD ww , Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold , MSc xx , Nima Hafezi-Nejad , MD rr , Tesfaye Hailu , MBA d , Gessessew Bugssa Hailu , MSc d , Graeme Hankey , MD x , Hamid Yimam Hassen , MPH yy , Kalkidan Hassen Abate , MS e , Rasmus Havmoeller , PhD y , Simon I. Hay , DSc a , u , Masako Horino , MPH zz , Peter J. Hotez , PhD aaa , Kathryn Jacobsen , PhD bbb , Spencer James , MD, MPH ccc , Mehdi Javanbakht , PhD ddd , Panniyammakal Jeemon , PhD nn , Denny John , MBA, MPH eee , Jost Jonas , MD fff , Yogeshwar Kalkonde , MD ggg , Chante Karimkhani , MD hhh , Amir Kasaeian , PhD rr , Yousef Khader , ShD iii , Abdur Khan , MD jjj , Young-Ho Khang , MD kkk , Sahil Khera , MD lll , Abdullah T. Khoja , MBBS, MPH, MBA mmm , Jagdish Khubchandani , MBBS, PhD nnn , Daniel Kim , DrPH ooo , Dhaval Kolte , MD ppp , Soewarta Kosen , MD qqq , Kristopher J. Krohn , BA a , G. Anil Kumar , PhD kk , Gene F. Kwan , MD rrr , Dharmesh Kumar Lal , MD kk , Anders Larsson , PhD l , Shai Linn , MD MPH, DrPH sss , Alan Lopez , MS, PhD g , Paulo A. Lotufo , DrPH ttt , Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek , MBBCh pp , Reza Malekzadeh , MD rr , Mohsen Mazidi , PhD uuu , Toni Meier , PhD vvv , Kidanu Gebremariam Meles , MPH d , George Mensah , MD www , Atte Meretoja , PhD g , Haftay Mezgebe , MSc d , Ted Miller , PhD xxx , Erkin Mirrakhimov , MD yyy , Shafiu Mohammed , PhD zzz , Andrew E. Moran , MD, MPH aaaa , Kamarul Imran Musa , MD bbbb , Jagat Narula , MD, PhD cccc , Bruce Neal , MBChB, PhD dddd , Frida Ngalesoni , MSc eeee , Grant Nguyen , MPH a , Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer , PhD ffff , Mayowa Owolabi , MBBS, MSc, DMed gggg , George Patton , MD g , João Pedro , MS hhhh , Dima Qato , PharmD, PhD iiii , Mostafa Qorbani , PhD jjjj , Kazem Rahimi , DM u , Rajesh Kumar Rai , MPH kkkk , Salman Rawaf , PhD llll , Antônio Ribeiro , MD z , Saeid Safiri , PhD mmmm , Joshua A. Salomon , PhD r , Itamar Santos , PhD ttt , Milena Santric Milicevic , MD, MSc, PhD q , Benn Sartorius , PhD nnnn , Aletta Schutte , PhD oooo , Sadaf Sepanlou , MD, PhD, MPH rr , Masood Ali Shaikh , MD, MPH, MA, MS pppp , Min-Jeong Shin , PhD qqqq , Mehdi Shishehbor , DO, MPH f , Hirbo Shore , MPH rrrr , Diego Augusto Santos Silva , PhD ssss , Eugene Sobngwi , MD, MPhil, PhD tttt , Saverio Stranges , MD, PhD uuuu , Soumya Swaminathan , MD vvvv , Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos , PhD cc , Niguse Tadele Atnafu , MS yy , Fisaha Tesfay , MSc d , J.S. Thakur , MD wwww , Amanda Thrift , PhD xxxx , Roman Topor-Madry , PhD yyyy , Thomas Truelsen , MD, PhD, DMSc zzzz , Stefanos Tyrovolas , PhD aaaaa , Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja , MD bbbbb , Olalekan Uthman , PhD ccccc , Tommi Vasankari , PhD ddddd , Vasiliy Vlassov , MD eeeee , Stein Emil Vollset , DrPH fffff , Tolassa Wakayo , MSc e , David Watkins , MD, MPH a , Robert Weintraub , MBBS ggggg , Andrea Werdecker , PhD hhhhh , Ronny Westerman , PhD hhhhh , Charles Shey Wiysonge , PhD iiiii , Charles Wolfe , MD jjjjj , Abdulhalik Workicho , MPH e , Gelin Xu , PhD kkkkk , Yuichiro Yano , MD lllll , Paul Yip , PhD mmmmm , Naohiro Yonemoto , MPH nnnnn , Mustafa Younis , DhPH ooooo , Chuanhua Yu , PhD ppppp , Theo Vos , PhD a , Mohsen Naghavi , PhD a , Christopher Murray , DPhil a
04 July 2017
cause of death, epidemiology, global health, CVD, cardiovascular disease, DALY, disability-adjusted life-year, IHD, ischemic heart disease, PAD, peripheral arterial disease, RHD, rheumatic heart disease, SDI, sociodemographic index, UI, uncertainty interval, YLD, years lived with disability, YLL, years of life lost
The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world.
The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden.
CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility.
In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75.
CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.