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      Identifying Risk and Protective Factors in Recidivist Juvenile Offenders: A Decision Tree Approach

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          Abstract

          Research on juvenile justice aims to identify profiles of risk and protective factors in juvenile offenders. This paper presents a study of profiles of risk factors that influence young offenders toward committing sanctionable antisocial behavior (S-ASB). Decision tree analysis is used as a multivariate approach to the phenomenon of repeated sanctionable antisocial behavior in juvenile offenders in Spain. The study sample was made up of the set of juveniles who were charged in a court case in the Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain). The period of study of recidivism was two years from the baseline. The object of study is presented, through the implementation of a decision tree. Two profiles of risk and protective factors are found. Risk factors associated with higher rates of recidivism are antisocial peers, age at baseline S-ASB, problems in school and criminality in family members.

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          Most cited references9

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          Peer influence on risk taking, risk preference, and risky decision making in adolescence and adulthood: an experimental study.

          In this study, 306 individuals in 3 age groups--adolescents (13-16), youths (18-22), and adults (24 and older)--completed 2 questionnaire measures assessing risk preference and risky decision making, and 1 behavioral task measuring risk taking. Participants in each age group were randomly assigned to complete the measures either alone or with 2 same-aged peers. Analyses indicated that (a) risk taking and risky decision making decreased with age; (b) participants took more risks, focused more on the benefits than the costs of risky behavior, and made riskier decisions when in peer groups than alone; and (c) peer effects on risk taking and risky decision making were stronger among adolescents and youths than adults. These findings support the idea that adolescents are more inclined toward risky behavior and risky decision making than are adults and that peer influence plays an important role in explaining risky behavior during adolescence.
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            What are decision trees?

            Decision trees have been applied to problems such as assigning protein function and predicting splice sites. How do these classifiers work, what types of problems can they solve and what are their advantages over alternatives?
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              A Systematic Review of Criminal Recidivism Rates Worldwide: Current Difficulties and Recommendations for Best Practice

              Objectives To systematically review recidivism rates internationally, report whether they are comparable and, on the basis of this, develop best reporting guidelines for recidivism. Methods We searched MEDLINE, Google Web, and Google Scholar search engines for recidivism rates around the world, using both non-country-specific searches as well as targeted searches for the 20 countries with the largest total prison populations worldwide. Results We identified recidivism data for 18 countries. Of the 20 countries with the largest prison populations, only 2 reported repeat offending rates. The most commonly reported outcome was 2-year reconviction rates in prisoners. Sample selection and definitions of recidivism varied widely, and few countries were comparable. Conclusions Recidivism data are currently not valid for international comparisons. Justice Departments should consider using the reporting guidelines developed in this paper to report their data.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                9 September 2016
                2016
                : 11
                : 9
                : e0160423
                Affiliations
                [001]Standing Seminar on Juvenile Justice, Psychology Department, University of Almeria, Carretera de Sacramento s/n. C.P. 04120, La Cañada de San Urbano, Almería, Spain
                Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, FRANCE
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                • Conceived and designed the experiments: EO JG FZ.

                • Performed the experiments: EO MJG.

                • Analyzed the data: EO JG.

                • Wrote the paper: EO FZ JG MJG.

                Article
                PONE-D-16-08561
                10.1371/journal.pone.0160423
                5017639
                27611313
                13a9d9d8-a3e3-434a-9411-7004bf211655
                © 2016 Ortega-Campos et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 3 March 2016
                : 19 July 2016
                Page count
                Figures: 1, Tables: 3, Pages: 16
                Funding
                Funded by: This work was supported by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Spain) [DER2014-58084-R]. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                This work was supported by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Spain) [DER2014-58084-R]. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Mental Health and Psychiatry
                Engineering and Technology
                Management Engineering
                Decision Analysis
                Decision Trees
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Decision Analysis
                Decision Trees
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Criminology
                Crime
                Violent Crime
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Education
                Schools
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Mental Health and Psychiatry
                Substance-Related Disorders
                Substance Abuse
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Public and Occupational Health
                Substance-Related Disorders
                Substance Abuse
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Criminology
                Crime
                Delinquency
                Social Sciences
                Law and Legal Sciences
                Legislation
                People and Places
                Population Groupings
                Age Groups
                Adolescents
                Custom metadata
                All relevant data are within the paper.

                Uncategorized
                Uncategorized

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