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      Biothreat Reduction and Economic Development: The Case of Animal Husbandry in Central Asia

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          Abstract

          Improving human welfare is a critical global concern, but not always easy to achieve. Complications in this regard have been faced by the states of the Former Soviet Union, where socialist-style economic institutions have disappeared, and the transition to a market economy has been slow in coming. Lack of capital, ethnic conflict, and political instability have at times undermined the institutional reform that would be necessary to enable economic efficiency and development. Nowhere are such challenges more pronounced than in the new nation states of central Asia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Here, a severe climate limits agriculture, and industrialization has been inhibited by lack of infrastructure, low levels of human capital, and a scarcity of financial resources. These conditions are aggravated by the fact that the central Asian states are landlocked, far from centers of market demand and capital availability. Despite these daunting barriers, development potential does exist, and the goal of the paper is to consider central Asia’s pastoral economy, with a focus on Kazakhstan, which stands poised to become a regional growth pole. The article pursues its goal as follows. It first addresses the biothreat situation to central Asian livestock herds, the most significant existing impediment to realizing the full market potential of the region’s animal products. Next, it provides an outline of interventions that can reduce risk levels for key biothreats impacting central Asia, namely foot and mouth disease (FMD), which greatly impacts livestock and prohibits export, and Brucellosis, a bacterial zoonosis with high incidence in both humans and livestock in the region. Included is an important success story involving the FMD eradication programs in Brazil, which enabled an export boom in beef. After this comes a description of the epidemiological situation in Kazakhstan; here, the article considers the role of wildlife in acting as a possible disease reservoir, which presents a conservation issue for the Kazakhstani case. This is followed by a discussion of the role of science in threat reduction, particularly with respect to the potential offered by geospatial technologies to improve our epidemiological knowledge base. The article concludes with an assessment of the research that would be necessary to identify feasible pathways to develop the economic potential of central Asian livestock production as changes in policy are implemented and livestock health improves.

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          Most cited references34

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          Economic costs of the foot and mouth disease outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001.

          The authors present estimates of the economic costs to agriculture and industries affected by tourism of the outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2001. The losses to agriculture and the food chain amount to about Pound Sterling3.1 billion. The majority of the costs to agriculture have been met by the Government through compensation for slaughter and disposal as well as clean-up costs. Nonetheless, agricultural producers will have suffered losses, estimated at Pound Sterling355 million, which represents about 20% of the estimated total income from farming in 2001. Based on data from surveys of tourism, businesses directly affected by tourist expenditure are estimated to have lost a similar total amount (between Pound Sterling2.7 and Pound Sterling3.2 billion) as a result of reduced numbers of people visiting the countryside. The industries which supply agriculture, the food industries and tourist-related businesses will also have suffered losses. However, the overall costs to the UK economy are substantially less than the sum of these components, as much of the expenditure by tourists was not lost, but merely displaced to other sectors of the economy. Overall, the net effect of FMD is estimated to have reduced the gross domestic product in the UK by less than 0.2% in 2001.
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            Increasing world consumption of beef as a driver of regional and global change: A call for policy action based on evidence from Queensland (Australia), Colombia and Brazil

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              The construction and analysis of epidemic trees with reference to the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth outbreak.

              The case-reproduction ratio for the spread of an infectious disease is a critically important concept for understanding dynamics of epidemics and for evaluating impact of control measures on spread of infection. Reliable estimation of this ratio is a problem central to epidemiology and is most often accomplished by fitting dynamic models to data and estimating combinations of parameters that equate to the case-reproduction ratio. Here, we develop a novel parameter-free method that permits direct estimation of the history of transmission events recoverable from detailed observation of a particular epidemic. From these reconstructed 'epidemic trees', case-reproduction ratios can be estimated directly. We develop a bootstrap algorithm that generates percentile intervals for these estimates that shows the procedure to be both precise and robust to possible uncertainties in the historical reconstruction. Identifying and 'pruning' branches from these trees whose occurrence might have been prevented by implementation of more stringent control measures permits estimation of the possible efficacy of these alternative measures. Examination of the cladistic structure of these trees as a function of the distance of each case from its infection source reveals useful insights about the relationship between long-distance transmission events and epidemic size. We demonstrate the utility of these methods by applying them to data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the UK.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Public Health
                Front Public Health
                Front. Public Health
                Frontiers in Public Health
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                2296-2565
                23 December 2015
                2015
                : 3
                : 270
                Affiliations
                [1] 1Department of Geography, Center for Latin American Studies, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, USA
                [2] 2Department of Geography, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida , Gainesville, FL, USA
                Author notes

                Edited by: Nathan Wolfe, Metabiota, USA

                Reviewed by: Sue Grady, Michigan State University, USA; Craig Kiebler, Metabiota, USA

                *Correspondence: Robert Walker, roberttwalker@ 123456ufl.edu

                Specialty section: This article was submitted to Infectious Diseases, a section of the journal Frontiers in Public Health

                Article
                10.3389/fpubh.2015.00270
                4688358
                140b04ae-9bbd-4e18-aae6-c6de473d02fb
                Copyright © 2015 Walker and Blackburn.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 24 May 2015
                : 12 November 2015
                Page count
                Figures: 2, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 57, Pages: 10, Words: 8367
                Categories
                Public Health
                Review

                central asia,biothreats,economic development,conservation of natural resources,geospatial analysis

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