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      Exploring Predictability in Armed Conflict

      Journal of Advanced Military Studies
      Marine Corps University Press

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          Abstract

          This article proposes a direct relationship between complexity and predictability in a two-agent noncooperative zero-sum game (2XZSG). The author explores this proposition by modeling armed conflict as a 2XZSG and using case studies in armed conflict as the dataset for the systematic literature review. This article uses a multiple case study approach, systematically reviewing 13 case studies in armed conflict that yielded 156 references identifying four themes—environmental, human resource, operational, and supply chain constraints—that demonstrate a direct relationship between complexity and predictability. The data focuses on decisions made in particular battles and campaigns as well as the constraints that impacted decision making. By identifying those decisions and constraints, four themes emerged. These four themes are an innovation as a potential addendum to the war gaming methodology in the military decision making process (MDMP).

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          Most cited references16

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          Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

          This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.
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            A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice

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              Synthesizing information systems knowledge: A typology of literature reviews

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Advanced Military Studies
                JAMS
                Marine Corps University Press
                21644209
                21644217
                July 15 2020
                June 16 2020
                July 15 2020
                June 16 2020
                : 11
                : 1
                : 147-165
                Article
                10.21140/mcuj.2020110107
                145205f1-5922-47cd-a79d-35fa9baea2ad
                © 2020

                Distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial NoDerivatives License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/, which permits noncommercial use and distribution in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited, and the original work is not modified.

                History

                Theory of historical sciences,Political science,Modern history,General history,Contemporary history,History

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