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      COVID-19 and the need of targeted inverse quarantine

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          Abstract

          SARS-CoV-2 is circulating the world and causing people to suffer from COVID-19. Many countries answer with lockdowns and quarantine [1, 2] and in these countries, public life has come to a halt. For example, all childcare centers, Kindergarten, schools, universities, restaurants, sport and fitness clubs, shops that are not relevant to the universal service, and other facilities are currently closed in Germany and elsewhere. People are encouraged to work at home if possible. The dilemma of unfocused preventive measures The recommendation of social isolation of the whole population as currently practiced in Germany is driven by the idea that the spread of the disease is reduced which may prevent a sudden overcrowding of hospitals with seriously ill COVID-19 cases as has been observed in Northern Italy. Sebastiani et al. [3] in this issue show that the strict isolation measures as taken in Lombardy and later on in all over Italy was associated with the reduction of progression of the epidemic. This approach has enormous negative economic and societal consequences [4] but may be justified in the beginning of an epidemic when infection rates, hospitalization rates and case-fatality cannot be stratified by potential determinants. As soon as more detailed data on the spread and case-fatality of the corona infections is available, a targeted, that is, risk-adapted approach to prevent corona infections is possible and should be implemented because social isolation of the entire population will lead to unsustainable conditions in the population in the long run. For a targeted strategy to prevent deaths from COVID-19, a high-risk approach is possible and does not have the enormous negative economic and societal consequences. Which subpopulations are high-risk populations for COVID-19 death? Available data from the pandemic indicate that COVID-19 deaths occur predominantly among the elderly and comorbid people. For example, in Italy the case fatality (CF) as of March 17, 2020 was 0.3–0.4% among people aged 30-49 years, 1.0% among people aged 50–59 years, 3.5% among people aged 60-69 years, 12.8% among people aged 70–79 years, and 20.2% among people aged 80 years or more [5]. The COVID-19 outbreak at the cruise ship Diamond Princess showed that the virus infected 621 out of 3711 persons within 4 weeks and six died. All of the deceased were at least 70 years old and at least two of them had comorbidities [6]. Furthermore, data from China show that people with comorbidities have higher CF (cardiovascular diseases: 11%, diabetes: 7%, chronic respiratory diseases: 6%, hypertension: 6%, cancer: 6%) whereas the overall CF in China as based on an analysis of 72,314 patient records was 2% [7]. Recent data on the case-fatality in Italy [8], Spain [9], and the U.S. [10] show similar age gradients of the case-fatality with barely any case-fatality below age 60 years and a cubic increase of the case-fatality among the elderly (Fig. 1). Fig. 1 Association between age at diagnosis of COVID-19 and case-fatality in Italy (up to March 16, 2020), Spain (up to March 22, 2020), and the U.S. (up to March 16, 2020) How should we do targeted prevention? We introduce the term ‘inverse quarantine’ (IQ) as a Public Health approach to save lives and to keep the economy vital. We understand IQ as a measure that prevents fatal outcomes during infectious epidemics or pandemics by isolating people with high risk but not yet infected. This approach is in contrast to usual quarantine where infected people are isolated. High risk people could isolate themselves e.g. at home until a pandemic subsides enough that isolation is not needed anymore. Following this logic, it is necessary to ration medical means e.g. for disinfection and selling them preferably to people of high risk of death if they would get infected. For COVID-19 this means that comorbid people and the elderly should isolate themselves and should preferably get disinfection etc. With this targeted approach, the vast majority of COVID-19 deaths can be prevented. What does that mean for the population of lower risk not isolating itself? Within the low-risk population not isolating itself, COVID-19 can spread and will produce illness. However, COVID-19 among low risk populations (i.e. younger people, healthy people) exceptionally produces deaths and helps to reach herd immunity in less time than isolating the whole population. Furthermore, the reduction of the time to reach herd immunity reduces the risk that pathogen strains becomes more aggressive (selection effects). In conclusion, epidemiological data can help to plan a targeted COVID-19 prevention strategy for high risk people by age and comorbidities. People above the age of 80 are at very high-risk as well as persons with underlying comorbidities such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, hypertension, chronic respiratory disease and cancer. IQ will not only save lives but keep the economy vital and reduce the time until herd immunity is reached which in the end further protects high-risk groups against COVID-19.

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          Case-Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Relation to COVID-19 in Italy

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            Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020

            On March 18, 2020, this report was posted online as an MMWR Early Release. Globally, approximately 170,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) have been reported, including an estimated 7,000 deaths in approximately 150 countries ( 1 ). On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic ( 2 ). Data from China have indicated that older adults, particularly those with serious underlying health conditions, are at higher risk for severe COVID-19–associated illness and death than are younger persons ( 3 ). Although the majority of reported COVID-19 cases in China were mild (81%), approximately 80% of deaths occurred among adults aged ≥60 years; only one (0.1%) death occurred in a person aged ≤19 years ( 3 ). In this report, COVID-19 cases in the United States that occurred during February 12–March 16, 2020 and severity of disease (hospitalization, admission to intensive care unit [ICU], and death) were analyzed by age group. As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases in the United States had been reported to CDC, with multiple cases reported among older adults living in long-term care facilities ( 4 ). Overall, 31% of cases, 45% of hospitalizations, 53% of ICU admissions, and 80% of deaths associated with COVID-19 were among adults aged ≥65 years with the highest percentage of severe outcomes among persons aged ≥85 years. In contrast, no ICU admissions or deaths were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Similar to reports from other countries, this finding suggests that the risk for serious disease and death from COVID-19 is higher in older age groups. Data from cases reported from 49 states, the District of Columbia, and three U.S. territories ( 5 ) to CDC during February 12–March 16 were analyzed. Cases among persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and from Japan (including patients repatriated from cruise ships) were excluded. States and jurisdictions voluntarily reported data on laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 using previously developed data collection forms ( 6 ). The cases described in this report include both COVID-19 cases confirmed by state or local public health laboratories as well as those with a positive test at the state or local public health laboratories and confirmation at CDC. No data on serious underlying health conditions were available. Data on these cases are preliminary and are missing for some key characteristics of interest, including hospitalization status (1,514), ICU admission (2,253), death (2,001), and age (386). Because of these missing data, the percentages of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths (case-fatality percentages) were estimated as a range. The lower bound of these percentages was estimated by using all cases within each age group as denominators. The corresponding upper bound of these percentages was estimated by using only cases with known information on each outcome as denominators. As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the United States, with reports increasing to 500 or more cases per day beginning March 14 (Figure 1). Among 2,449 patients with known age, 6% were aged ≥85, 25% were aged 65–84 years, 18% each were aged 55–64 years and 45–54 years, and 29% were aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). Only 5% of cases occurred in persons aged 0–19 years. FIGURE 1 Number of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases reported daily*,† (N = 4,226) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020 * Includes both COVID-19 cases confirmed by state or local public health laboratories, as well as those testing positive at the state or local public health laboratories and confirmed at CDC. † Cases identified before February 28 were aggregated and reported during March 1–3. The figure is a histogram, an epidemiologic curve showing 4,226 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, by date of case report, in the United States during February 12–March 16, 2020. Figure 2 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalizations,* intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, † and deaths, § by age group — United States, February 12– March 16, 2020 * Hospitalization status missing or unknown for 1,514 cases. † ICU status missing or unknown for 2,253 cases. § Illness outcome or death missing or unknown for 2,001 cases. The figure is a bar chart showing the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths, by age group, in the United States during February 12– March 16, 2020. Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged ≤19 years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years. (Table). TABLE Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and case–fatality percentages for reported COVID–19 cases, by age group —United States, February 12–March 16, 2020 Age group (yrs) (no. of cases) %* Hospitalization ICU admission Case-fatality 0–19 (123) 1.6–2.5 0 0 20–44 (705) 14.3–20.8 2.0–4.2 0.1–0.2 45–54 (429) 21.2–28.3 5.4–10.4 0.5–0.8 55–64 (429) 20.5–30.1 4.7–11.2 1.4–2.6 65–74 (409) 28.6–43.5 8.1–18.8 2.7–4.9 75–84 (210) 30.5–58.7 10.5–31.0 4.3–10.5 ≥85 (144) 31.3–70.3 6.3–29.0 10.4–27.3 Total (2,449) 20.7–31.4 4.9–11.5 1.8–3.4 * Lower bound of range = number of persons hospitalized, admitted to ICU, or who died among total in age group; upper bound of range = number of persons hospitalized, admitted to ICU, or who died among total in age group with known hospitalization status, ICU admission status, or death. Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table). Among 44 cases with known outcome, 15 (34%) deaths were reported among adults aged ≥85 years, 20 (46%) among adults aged 65–84 years, and nine (20%) among adults aged 20–64 years. Case-fatality percentages increased with increasing age, from no deaths reported among persons aged ≤19 years to highest percentages (10%–27%) among adults aged ≥85 years (Table) (Figure 2). Discussion Since February 12, 4,226 COVID-19 cases were reported in the United States; 31% of cases, 45% of hospitalizations, 53% of ICU admissions, and 80% of deaths occurred among adults aged ≥65 years with the highest percentage of severe outcomes among persons aged ≥85 years. These findings are similar to data from China, which indicated >80% of deaths occurred among persons aged ≥60 years ( 3 ). These preliminary data also demonstrate that severe illness leading to hospitalization, including ICU admission and death, can occur in adults of any age with COVID-19. In contrast, persons aged ≤19 years appear to have milder COVID-19 illness, with almost no hospitalizations or deaths reported to date in the United States in this age group. Given the spread of COVID-19 in many U.S. communities, CDC continues to update current recommendations and develop new resources and guidance, including for adults aged ≥65 years as well as those involved in their care ( 7 , 8 ). Approximately 49 million U.S. persons are aged ≥65 years ( 9 ), and many of these adults, who are at risk for severe COVID-19–associated illness, might depend on services and support to maintain their health and independence. To prepare for potential COVID-19 illness among persons at high risk, family members and caregivers of older adults should know what medications they are taking and ensure that food and required medical supplies are available. Long-term care facilities should be particularly vigilant to prevent the introduction and spread of COVID-19 ( 10 ). In addition, clinicians who care for adults should be aware that COVID-19 can result in severe disease among persons of all ages. Persons with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 should monitor their symptoms and call their provider for guidance if symptoms worsen or seek emergency care for persistent severe symptoms. Additional guidance is available for health care providers on CDC’s website (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/hcp/index.html). This report describes the current epidemiology of COVID-19 in the United States, using preliminary data. The findings in this report are subject to at least five limitations. First, data were missing for key variables of interest. Data on age and outcomes, including hospitalization, ICU admission, and death, were missing for 9%–53% of cases, which likely resulted in an underestimation of these outcomes. Second, further time for follow-up is needed to ascertain outcomes among active cases. Third, the initial approach to testing was to identify patients among those with travel histories or persons with more severe disease, and these data might overestimate the prevalence of severe disease. Fourth, data on other risk factors, including serious underlying health conditions that could increase risk for complications and severe illness, were unavailable at the time of this analysis. Finally, limited testing to date underscores the importance of ongoing surveillance of COVID-19 cases. Additional investigation will increase the understanding about persons who are at risk for severe illness and death from COVID-19 and inform clinical guidance and community-based mitigation measures.* The risk for serious disease and death in COVID-19 cases among persons in the United States increases with age. Social distancing is recommended for all ages to slow the spread of the virus, protect the health care system, and help protect vulnerable older adults. Further, older adults should maintain adequate supplies of nonperishable foods and at least a 30-day supply of necessary medications, take precautions to keep space between themselves and others, stay away from those who are sick, avoid crowds as much as possible, avoid cruise travel and nonessential air travel, and stay home as much as possible to further reduce the risk of being exposed ( 7 ). Persons of all ages and communities can take actions to help slow the spread of COVID-19 and protect older adults. † Summary What is already known about this topic? Early data from China suggest that a majority of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths have occurred among adults aged ≥60 years and among persons with serious underlying health conditions. What is added by this report? This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years. What are the implications for public health practice? COVID-19 can result in severe disease, including hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit, and death, especially among older adults. Everyone can take actions, such as social distancing, to help slow the spread of COVID-19 and protect older adults from severe illness.
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              Covid-19 epidemic in Italy: evolution, projections and impact of government measures

              We report on the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy in relation to the extraordinary measures implemented by the Italian Government between the 24th of February and the 12th of March. We analysed the Covid-19 cumulative incidence (CI) using data from the 1st to the 31st of March. We estimated that in Lombardy, the worst hit region in Italy, the observed Covid-19 CI diverged towards values lower than the ones expected in the absence of government measures approximately 7–10 days after the measures implementation. The Covid-19 CI growth rate peaked in Lombardy the 22nd of March and in other regions between the 24th and the 27th of March. The CI growth rate peaked in 87 out of 107 Italian provinces on average 13.6 days after the measures implementation. We projected that the CI growth rate in Lombardy should substantially slow by mid-May 2020. Other regions should follow a similar pattern. Our projections assume that the government measures will remain in place during this period. The evolution of the epidemic in different Italian regions suggests that the earlier the measures were taken in relation to the stage of the epidemic, the lower the total cumulative incidence achieved during this epidemic wave. Our analyses suggest that the government measures slowed and eventually reduced the Covid-19 CI growth where the epidemic had already reached high levels by mid-March (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto) and prevented the rise of the epidemic in regions of central and southern Italy where the epidemic was at an earlier stage in mid-March to reach the high levels already present in northern regions. As several governments indicate that their aim is to “push down” the epidemic curve, the evolution of the epidemic in Italy supports the WHO recommendation that strict containment measures should be introduced as early as possible in the epidemic curve.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                imibe.dir@uk-essen.de
                Journal
                Eur J Epidemiol
                Eur. J. Epidemiol
                European Journal of Epidemiology
                Springer Netherlands (Dordrecht )
                0393-2990
                1573-7284
                24 April 2020
                : 1-2
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.410718.b, ISNI 0000 0001 0262 7331, Institute of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, , University Hospital Essen, ; Essen, Germany
                [2 ]GRID grid.189504.1, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 7558, School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, , Boston University, ; Boston, USA
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6363-9061
                Article
                629
                10.1007/s10654-020-00629-0
                7180640
                146034be-3a66-4ccc-9e71-a42320f21e07
                © Springer Nature B.V. 2020

                This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.

                History
                : 23 March 2020
                : 7 April 2020
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung;
                Award ID: 01ER1305
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