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      Hypocalcemic tetany: a simple bedside marker of poor outcome in acute pancreatitis

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          Abstract

          Background

          Hypocalcemia is a marker of poor prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP) but the prognostic significance of hypocalcemic tetany in patients with AP has not been studied. We aimed to determine the prognostic significance of hypocalcemic tetany in patients with AP.

          Methods

          Consecutive patients of AP who presented within 7 days of symptoms were included. Serum calcium levels were measured on admission and the patients were divided into two groups based on the presence (group 1) or absence of hypocalcemia (group 2). Chvostek and Trousseau signs were sought in all patients with hypocalcemia and the outcome measures were compared between patients with normocalcemia, asymptomatic and symptomatic hypocalcemia (tetany). The outcome parameters assessed were persistent organ failure (POF), need for intervention, and mortality.

          Results

          Of 105 patients (53 male; mean age 37.34±12.62 years), 37 (35.2%) had hypocalcemia (group 1) and 68 (64.8%) had normal corrected serum calcium levels (group 2). Patients with hypocalcemia had significantly higher frequency of POF, mortality and need for intervention (P<0.05). Twelve of 37 (32.4%) patients with hypocalcemia had tetany. Patients with tetany had significantly lower serum corrected calcium and ionized calcium levels compared with patients with asymptomatic hypocalcemia (P<0.05). Patients with tetany had significantly higher mortality rates compared with patients with asymptomatic hypocalcemia (100% vs. 8%; P=0.00001) as well as POF (100% vs. 32%; P=0.000006).

          Conclusion

          Presence of hypocalcemic tetany in AP patients bears a poor prognosis and is associated with increased mortality.

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          Most cited references29

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          Complications of ERCP.

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            Prognostic signs and the role of operative management in acute pancreatitis.

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              Prediction of severe acute pancreatitis using classification and regression tree analysis.

              The available prognostic scoring systems for acute pancreatitis have limitations that restrict their clinical value. To develop a decision model based on classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). A total of 420 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled. Study participants were randomly assigned to the training sample and test sample in a 2:1 ratio. First, univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to identify predictors associated with SAP in the training sample. Then, CART analysis was carried out to develop a simple tree model for the prediction of SAP. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed in order to assess the performance of the model. The prediction model was then applied to the test sample. Four variables (systemic inflammatory response syndrome [SIRS], pleural effusion, serum calcium, and blood urea nitrogen [BUN]) were identified as important predictors of SAP by logistic regression analysis. A tree model (which consisted of pleural effusion, serum calcium, and BUN) that was developed by CART analysis was able to early identify among cohorts at high (79.03%) and low (7.80%) risk of developing SAP. The area under the ROC curve of the tree model was higher than that of the APACHE II score (0.84 vs. 0.68; P < 0.001). The predicted accuracy of the tree model was validated in the test sample with an area under the ROC curve of 0.86. A decision tree model that consists of pleural effusion, serum calcium, and BUN may be useful for the prediction of SAP.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Ann Gastroenterol
                Ann Gastroenterol
                Annals of Gastroenterology : Quarterly Publication of the Hellenic Society of Gastroenterology
                Hellenic Society of Gastroenterology (Greece )
                1108-7471
                1792-7463
                Apr-Jun 2016
                : 29
                : 2
                : 214-220
                Affiliations
                [a ]Department of Gastroenterology, Fortis Hospital, Mohali, Punjab (Puneet Chhabra, Deepak K. Bhasin), India
                [b ]Department of Gastroenterology, Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh (Surinder S. Rana, Vishal Sharma, Ravi Sharma), India
                Author notes
                Correspondence to: Dr Deepak Kumar Bhasin, DM, FAMS, FASGE, AGAF, Professor and Head Department of Gastroenterology, Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, #1041 Sector 24-B, Chandigarh, 160023 India, Tel.: +91 172 2725056, Fax: + 91 172 2744401, e-mail: deepakkbhasingmail.com or dkbhasind@ 123456hotmail.com
                Article
                AnnGastroenterol-29-214
                10.20524/aog.2016.0015
                4805743
                27065735
                14646506-35d2-4c40-bc63-3c72a5b2ad44
                Copyright: © Hellenic Society of Gastroenterology

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 02 November 2015
                : 30 December 2015
                Categories
                Original Article

                hypocalcemia,tetany,acute pancreatitis
                hypocalcemia, tetany, acute pancreatitis

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