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      A requiem for North American overkill

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      Journal of Archaeological Science
      Elsevier BV

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          A multispecies overkill simulation of the end-Pleistocene megafaunal mass extinction.

          J Alroy (2001)
          A computer simulation of North American end-Pleistocene human and large herbivore population dynamics correctly predicts the extinction or survival of 32 out of 41 prey species. Slow human population growth rates, random hunting, and low maximum hunting effort are assumed; additional parameters are based on published values. Predictions are close to observed values for overall extinction rates, human population densities, game consumption rates, and the temporal overlap of humans and extinct species. Results are robust to variation in unconstrained parameters. This fully mechanistic model accounts for megafaunal extinction without invoking climate change and secondary ecological effects.
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            Spatial Response of Mammals to Late Quaternary Environmental Fluctuations

            Analyses of fossil mammal faunas from 2945 localities in the United States demonstrate that the geographic ranges of individual species shifted at different times, in different directions, and at different rates in response to late Quaternary environmental fluctuations. The geographic pattern of faunal provinces was similar for the late Pleistocene and late Holocene, but differing environmental gradients resulted in dissimilar species composition for these biogeographic regions. Modern community patterns emerged only in the last few thousand years, and many late Pleistocene communities do not have modern analogs. Faunal heterogeneity was greater in the late Pleistocene.
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              The Discovery of America: The first Americans may have swept the Western Hemisphere and decimated its fauna within 1000 years.

              I propose a new scenario for the discovery of America. By analogy with other successful animal invasions, one may assume that the discovery of the New World triggered a human population explosion. The invading hunters attained their highest population density along a front that swept from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico in 350 years, and on to the tip of South America in roughly 1000 years. A sharp drop in human population soon followed as major prey animals declined to extinction. Possible values for the model include an average frontal depth of 160 kilometers, an average population density of 0.4 person per square kilometer on the front and of 0.04 person per square kilometer behind the front, and an average rate of frontal advance of 16 kilometers per year. For the first two centuries the maximum rate of growth may have equaled the historic maximum of 3.4 percent annually. During the episode of faunal extinctions, the population of North America need not have exceeded 600,000 people at any one time. The model generates a population sufficiently large to overkill a biomass of Pleistocene large animals averaging 9 metric tons per square kilometer (50 animal units per section) or 2.3 x 10(8) metric tons in the hemisphere. It requires that on the front one person in four destroy one animal unit (450 kilograms) per week, or 26 percent of the biomass of an average section in 1 year in any one region. Extinction would occur within a decade. There was insufficient time for the fauna to learn defensive behaviors, or for more than a few kill sites to be buried and preserved for the archeologist. Should the model survive future findings, it will mean that the extinction chronology of the Pleistocene megafauna can be used to map the spread of Homo sapiens throughout the New World.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Archaeological Science
                Journal of Archaeological Science
                Elsevier BV
                03054403
                May 2003
                May 2003
                : 30
                : 5
                : 585-593
                Article
                10.1016/S0305-4403(02)00205-4
                14f05b74-c7d5-4905-810c-ccc0f3485500
                © 2003

                http://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/

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