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      Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions

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          Abstract

          The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation (CA) declines and heat accumulation (HA) increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift toward responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

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          Most cited references36

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          Growing season extended in Europe

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            Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends.

            Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20-50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species' response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change.
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              Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and field crops in Germany, 1961–2000

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Plant Sci
                Front Plant Sci
                Front. Plant Sci.
                Frontiers in Plant Science
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                1664-462X
                15 December 2015
                2015
                : 6
                : 1054
                Affiliations
                [1] 1INRA, Unité Mixte de Recherche 1334 Amélioration Génétique et Adaptation des Plantes Méditerranéennes et Tropicales Montpellier, France
                [2] 2CIRAD, Unité Mixte de Recherche 1334 et Inria, Virtual Plants Montpellier, France
                [3] 3Faculdade de Agronomia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas Pelotas, Brazil
                [4] 4Faculté des Sciences, Université Moulay Ismail Meknès, Morocco
                [5] 5Unité Mixte de Recherche 547, INRA et Université Blaise Pascal, PIAF Clermont-Ferrand, France
                Author notes

                Edited by: Sergio Rossi, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, Canada

                Reviewed by: Ignacio García-González, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Spain; Rebecca Darbyshire, University of Melbourne, Australia

                *Correspondence: Jean-Michel Legave legave@ 123456supagro.inra.fr

                This article was submitted to Functional Plant Ecology, a section of the journal Frontiers in Plant Science

                Article
                10.3389/fpls.2015.01054
                4678210
                26697028
                151d536a-72e2-42dc-9ba1-4d707b8f99b6
                Copyright © 2015 Legave, Guédon, Malagi, El Yaacoubi and Bonhomme.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 07 July 2015
                : 12 November 2015
                Page count
                Figures: 9, Tables: 5, Equations: 4, References: 47, Pages: 13, Words: 10014
                Categories
                Plant Science
                Original Research

                Plant science & Botany
                fruit tree,flowering,chill period,heat period,warming vulnerability,multiple change-point models

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