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      EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

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          Abstract

          In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.

          Supplementary Information

          The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2.

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                masahiro_sugiyama@alum.mit.edu , masahiro@ifi.u-tokyo.ac.jp
                Journal
                Sustain Sci
                Sustain Sci
                Sustainability Science
                Springer Japan (Tokyo )
                1862-4065
                1862-4057
                17 February 2021
                17 February 2021
                : 1-20
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.26999.3d, ISNI 0000 0001 2151 536X, Institute for Future Initiatives, , The University of Tokyo, ; 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033 Japan
                [2 ]GRID grid.258799.8, ISNI 0000 0004 0372 2033, Graduate School of Engineering, , Kyoto University, ; Kyoto daigaku-katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto, 615-8530 Japan
                [3 ]GRID grid.140139.e, ISNI 0000 0001 0746 5933, National Institute for Environmental Studies, ; 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan
                [4 ]GRID grid.419132.c, ISNI 0000 0001 1018 1544, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, ; 9-2 Kizugawadai, Kizugawa, Kyoto 619-0292 Japan
                [5 ]GRID grid.474295.9, Institute of Applied Energy, ; 1-14-2 Nishi-Shimbashi, Minato, Tokyo, 105-0003 Japan
                [6 ]GRID grid.26999.3d, ISNI 0000 0001 2151 536X, School of Engineering, , The University of Tokyo, ; Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8656 Japan
                [7 ]GRID grid.459644.e, ISNI 0000 0004 0621 3306, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), ; 2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa, 240-0115 Japan
                [8 ]GRID grid.474905.b, ISNI 0000 0001 0738 8106, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, ; Kachidoki 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-0054 Japan
                [9 ]GRID grid.412698.0, ISNI 0000 0001 1500 8310, The University of Shiga Prefecture, ; 2500, Hassaka-cho, Hikone-City, Shiga, 522-8533 Japan
                [10 ]GRID grid.75276.31, ISNI 0000 0001 1955 9478, International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), ; Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2038-1045
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6720-409X
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-804X
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5484-4442
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7197-7933
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4483-0332
                Article
                913
                10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2
                7887567
                33613778
                159734a8-9246-4d74-aa62-967e972b81ac
                © The Author(s) 2021

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 24 May 2020
                : 19 January 2021
                Funding
                Funded by: Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (JP)
                Award ID: 2-1704
                Award ID: 1-2002
                Award ID: 1-2002
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001691, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science;
                Award ID: JP20H04395
                Award ID: JP20K14860
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100008608, Sumitomo Foundation;
                Funded by: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JP)
                Award ID: JP20H02679
                Award ID: JP17H03531
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
                Award ID: Strategic Operation Fund and the Strategic Research Fund
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Special Feature: Original Article

                climate change mitigation,integrated assessment,long-term strategy,national climate policy,uncertainty,carbon neutrality,net-zero emissions

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