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Long-term HIV/AIDS survival estimation in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era.

Medical Decision Making

epidemiology, Adult, Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active, Computer Simulation, Decision Support Techniques, Female, HIV Infections, drug therapy, mortality, Humans, Male, Markov Chains, Monte Carlo Method, Sensitivity and Specificity, Survival Analysis, Survival Rate, Treatment Failure, United States

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      Abstract

      Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) prolongs short-term survival in patients with HIV/AIDS. HAART has only been available since 1996; thus, no long-term survival data are available. Computer simulation models extrapolating short-term survival data can provide estimates of long-term survival. These survival estimates may assist patients and clinicians in HAART treatment planning. The authors construct a computer simulation model based on observational data to estimate long-term survival in a cohort of HIV/AIDS patients undergoing treatment with HAART. The authors use data from the Collaboration in HIV Outcomes Research-US (CHORUS) observational cohort (N = 4791), the published literature, and US Life Tables to specify a computer simulation model of expected survival accounting for baseline CD4 cell count, progressive HAART treatment failure, progressive risk of HAART on treatment mortality, and age-associated mortality. Time to treatment failure for each of three rounds of HAART and risk of mortality on-treatment were estimated using parametric survival models with censoring of follow-up fit to CHORUS data. Off-treatment survival after HAART failure was estimated from the pre-HAART literature. Age-associated mortality was taken from US Life Tables. Median projected survivals stratified by baseline CD4 cell count subgroups were CD4 > 200 cells/mm3, 15.4 years; CD4 < or = 200 cells/mm3, 8.5 years; and CD4 < or = 50 cells/mm3, 5.5 years. These values are 4 to 6 years longer than pre-HAART cohorts. The sensitivity analyses showed that the model survival predictions were most sensitive to the treatment failure rate, the on-treatment mortality rate, and the number of treatment rounds. Computer simulation modeling of long-term survival of patients with HIV/AIDS on HAART--accounting for differential treatment failure and death rates stratified by CD4 cell count and age-associated mortality--suggests a relatively consistent 4- to 6-year survival benefit over pre-HAART therapies.

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      12583451

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