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      Spread of the tiger: global risk of invasion by the mosquito Aedes albopictus.

      Vector borne and zoonotic diseases (Larchmont, N.Y.)

      Risk Factors, Predictive Value of Tests, Population Growth, Mosquito Control, growth & development, Insect Vectors, Insect Bites and Stings, Humans, Global Health, Forecasting, Ecology, virology, veterinary, Disease Reservoirs, Computer Simulation, Commerce, Animals, Algorithms, Aedes

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          Abstract

          Aedes albopictus, commonly known as the Asian tiger mosquito, is currently the most invasive mosquito in the world. It is of medical importance due to its aggressive daytime human-biting behavior and ability to vector many viruses, including dengue, LaCrosse, and West Nile. Invasions into new areas of its potential range are often initiated through the transportation of eggs via the international trade in used tires. We use a genetic algorithm, Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP), to determine the ecological niche of Ae. albopictus and predict a global ecological risk map for the continued spread of the species. We combine this analysis with risk due to importation of tires from infested countries and their proximity to countries that have already been invaded to develop a list of countries most at risk for future introductions and establishments. Methods used here have potential for predicting risks of future invasions of vectors or pathogens.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          10.1089/vbz.2006.0562
          2212601
          17417960

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