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      Longitudinal and secular trends in total cholesterol levels and impact of lipid-lowering drug use among Norwegian women and men born in 1905–1977 in the population-based Tromsø Study 1979–2016

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          Abstract

          Objectives

          Elevated blood cholesterol is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Cholesterol level surveillance is necessary to study population disease burden, consider priorities for prevention and intervention and understand the effect of diet, lifestyle and treatment. Previous studies show a cholesterol decline in recent decades but lack data to follow individuals born in different decades throughout life.

          Methods

          We investigated changes in age-specific and birth cohort-specific total cholesterol (TC) levels in 43 710 women and men born in 1905–1977 (aged 20–95 years at screening) in the population-based Tromsø Study. Fifty-nine per cent of the participants had more than one and up to six repeated TC measurements during 1979–2016. Linear mixed models were used to test for time trends.

          Results

          Mean TC decreased during 1979–2016 in both women and men and in all age groups. The decrease in TC in age group 40–49 years was 1.2 mmol/L in women and 1.0 mmol/L in men. Both the 80th and the 20th percentile of the population TC distribution decreased in both sexes and all age groups. Longitudinal analysis showed that TC increased with age to a peak around middle age followed by a decrease. At any given age, TC significantly decreased with increase in year born. Lipid-lowering drug use was rare in 1994, increased thereafter, but was low (<3% in women and <5% in men) among those younger than 50 years in all surveys. Between 1994 and 2016, lipid-lowering drug treatment in individuals 50 years and older explained 21% and 28% of the decrease in TC levels in women and men, respectively.

          Conclusions

          We found a substantial decrease in mean TC levels in the general population between 1979 and 2016 in all age groups. In birth cohorts, TC increased with age to a peak around middle age followed by a decrease.

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          Most cited references32

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          National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3·0 million participants.

          Data for trends in serum cholesterol are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. Previous analyses of trends in serum cholesterol were limited to a few countries, with no consistent and comparable global analysis. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean serum total cholesterol. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean serum total cholesterol for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (321 country-years and 3·0 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean total cholesterol by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. In 2008, age-standardised mean total cholesterol worldwide was 4·64 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 4·51-4·76) for men and 4·76 mmol/L (4·62-4·91) for women. Globally, mean total cholesterol changed little between 1980 and 2008, falling by less than 0·1 mmol/L per decade in men and women. Total cholesterol fell in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe, and in central and eastern Europe; the regional declines were about 0·2 mmol/L per decade for both sexes, with posterior probabilities of these being true declines 0·99 or greater. Mean total cholesterol increased in east and southeast Asia and Pacific by 0·08 mmol/L per decade (-0·06 to 0·22, posterior probability=0·86) in men and 0·09 mmol/L per decade (-0·07 to 0·26, posterior probability=0·86) in women. Despite converging trends, serum total cholesterol in 2008 was highest in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe; the regional mean was 5·24 mmol/L (5·08-5·39) for men and 5·23 mmol/L (5·03-5·43) for women. It was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa at 4·08 mmol/L (3·82-4·34) for men and 4·27 mmol/L (3·99-4·56) for women. Nutritional policies and pharmacological interventions should be used to accelerate improvements in total cholesterol in regions with decline and to curb or prevent the rise in Asian populations and elsewhere. Population-based surveillance of cholesterol needs to be improved in low-income and middle-income countries. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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            2016 European Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice.

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              Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Finland between 1982 and 1997.

              In Finland since the 1980s, coronary heart disease mortality has declined more than might be predicted by risk factor reductions alone. The aim of this study was to assess how much of the decline could be attributed to improved treatments and risk factor reductions. The authors used the cell-based IMPACT mortality model to synthesize effectiveness of treatments and risk factor reductions with data on treatments administered to patients and trends in cardiovascular risk factors in the population. Cardiovascular risk factors were measured in random samples of patients in 1982 (n=8,501) and 1997 (n=4,500). Mortality and treatment data were obtained from the National Causes of Death Register, Hospital Discharge Register, social insurance data, and medical records. Estimated and observed changes in coronary heart disease mortality were used as main outcome measures. Between 1982 and 1997, coronary heart disease mortality rates declined by 63%, with 373 fewer deaths in 1997 than expected from baseline mortality rates in 1982. Improved treatments explained approximately 23% of the mortality reduction, and risk factors explained some 53-72% of the reduction. These findings highlight the value of a comprehensive strategy that promotes primary prevention programs and actively supports secondary prevention. It also emphasizes the importance of maximizing population coverage of effective treatments.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Open
                bmjopen
                bmjopen
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                2044-6055
                2017
                21 August 2017
                : 7
                : 8
                : e015001
                Affiliations
                [1 ] departmentDepartment of Community Medicine , UiT The Arctic University of Norway , Tromsø, Norway
                [2 ] departmentDepartment of Health and Care Sciences , UiT The Arctic University of Norway , Tromsø, Norway
                [3 ] departmentDepartment of Public Health and General Practice , Norwegian University of Science and Technology , Trondheim, Norway
                [4 ] Clinic for Heart Disease, St. Olavs University Hospital , Trondheim, Norway
                [5 ] departmentDepartment of Cardiology , University Hospital of North Norway , Tromsø, Norway
                [6 ] departmentDepartment of Clinical Medicine , UiT The Arctic University of Norway , Tromsø, Norway
                [7 ] departmentDepartment of Neurology , University Hospital of North Norway , Tromsø, Norway
                Author notes
                [Correspondence to ] Dr Laila Arnesdatter Hopstock; laila.hopstock@ 123456uit.no
                Article
                bmjopen-2016-015001
                10.1136/bmjopen-2016-015001
                5724161
                28827236
                177747d3-9e6c-4535-baa1-c5914880c24e
                © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

                This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

                History
                : 02 November 2016
                : 17 July 2017
                : 26 July 2017
                Funding
                Funded by: Norwegian Health Association’s board in Troms County;
                Categories
                Epidemiology
                Research
                1506
                1692
                655
                Custom metadata
                unlocked

                Medicine
                anticholesterolemic agents,cholesterol,cohort studies,epidemiology,lipids,longitudinal studies

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