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      Unexpected plateauing of childhood obesity rates in developed countries

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          Abstract

          Surveys performed in the past 10 to 15 years show a yet unexplained stabilization or decline in prevalence rates of childhood obesity in developed countries. The projected continuous increase in obesity prevalence throughout future decades seems not to occur at present. Apparently, saturation has been reached, which might be related to societal adjustments. Hence, we postulate a cumulative effect of public health programs for obesity prevention resulting, for example, in an increase in physical activity, and a decline in television viewing and in the consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks by children. Effective public health programs are urgently needed for developing countries, where obesity rates in children still continued to increase during the past decade.

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          Most cited references24

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          Will all Americans become overweight or obese? estimating the progression and cost of the US obesity epidemic.

          We projected future prevalence and BMI distribution based on national survey data (National Health and Nutrition Examination Study) collected between 1970s and 2004. Future obesity-related health-care costs for adults were estimated using projected prevalence, Census population projections, and published national estimates of per capita excess health-care costs of obesity/overweight. The objective was to illustrate potential burden of obesity prevalence and health-care costs of obesity and overweight in the United States that would occur if current trends continue. Overweight and obesity prevalence have increased steadily among all US population groups, but with notable differences between groups in annual increase rates. The increase (percentage points) in obesity and overweight in adults was faster than in children (0.77 vs. 0.46-0.49), and in women than in men (0.91 vs. 0.65). If these trends continue, by 2030, 86.3% adults will be overweight or obese; and 51.1%, obese. Black women (96.9%) and Mexican-American men (91.1%) would be the most affected. By 2048, all American adults would become overweight or obese, while black women will reach that state by 2034. In children, the prevalence of overweight (BMI >/= 95th percentile, 30%) will nearly double by 2030. Total health-care costs attributable to obesity/overweight would double every decade to 860.7-956.9 billion US dollars by 2030, accounting for 16-18% of total US health-care costs. We continue to move away from the Healthy People 2010 objectives. Timely, dramatic, and effective development and implementation of corrective programs/policies are needed to avoid the otherwise inevitable health and societal consequences implied by our projections .
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            Evidence that the prevalence of childhood overweight is plateauing: data from nine countries.

            Until quite recently, there has been a widespread belief in the popular media and scientific literature that the prevalence of childhood obesity is rapidly increasing. However, high quality evidence has emerged from several countries suggesting that the rise in the prevalence has slowed appreciably, or even plateaued. This review brings together such data from nine countries (Australia, China, England, France, Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland and USA), with data from 467,294 children aged 2-19 years. The mean unweighted rate of change in prevalence of overweight and obesity was +0.00 (0.49)% per year across all age ×sex groups and all countries between 1995 and 2008. For overweight alone, the figure was +0.01 (0.56)%, and for obesity alone -0.01 (0.24)%. Rates of change differed by sex, age, socioeconomic status and ethnicity. While the prevalence of overweight and obesity appears to be stabilizing at different levels in different countries, it remains high, and a significant public health issue. Possible reasons for the apparent flattening are hypothesised.
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              Overweight and obesity in the United States: prevalence and trends, 1960-1994.

              To describe the prevalence of, and trends in, overweight and obesity in the US population using standardized international definitions. Successive cross-sectional nationally representative surveys, including the National Health Examination Survey (NHES I; 1960-62) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES I: 1971-1974; NHANES II: 1976-1980; NHANES III: 1988-94). Body mass index (BMI:kg/m2) was calculated from measured weight and height. Overweight and obesity were defined as follows: Overweight (BMI > or = 25.0); pre-obese (BMI 25.0-29.9), class I obesity (BMI 30.0-34.9), class II obesity (BMI 35.0-39.9), and class III obesity (BMI > or = 40.0). For men and women aged 20-74 y, the age-adjusted prevalence of BMI 25.0-29.9 showed little or no increase over time (NHES I: 30.5%, NHANES I: 32.0%, NHANES II: 31.5% and NHANES III: 32.0%) but the prevalence of obesity (BMI > or = 30.0) showed a large increase between NHANES II and NHANES III (NHES I: 12.8%; NHANES I, 14.1%; NHANES II, 14.5% and NHANES III, 22.5%). Trends were generally similar for all age, gender and race-ethnic groups. The crude prevalence of overweight and obesity (BMI > 25.0) for age > or = 20 y was 59.4% for men, 50.7% for women and 54.9% overall. The prevalence of class III obesity (BMI > or = 40.0) exceeded 10% for non-Hispanic black women aged 40-59 y. Between 1976-80 and 1988-94, the prevalence of obesity (BMI > or= 30.0) increased markedly in the US. These findings are in agreement with trends seen elsewhere in the world. Use of standardized definitions facilitates international comparisons.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMC Med
                BMC Med
                BMC Medicine
                BioMed Central
                1741-7015
                2014
                31 January 2014
                : 12
                : 17
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Division of Pediatric Endocrinology and Diabetes, Interdisciplinary Obesity Unit, Department of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Ulm University, Eythstr. 24, D-89073 Ulm, Germany
                [2 ]Institute of Human Genetics, Jena University Hospital, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Kollegiengasse 10, D-07740 Jena, Germany
                Article
                1741-7015-12-17
                10.1186/1741-7015-12-17
                3908468
                24485015
                17c924e5-3573-4323-8f09-ce1c1fd6a800
                Copyright © 2014 Wabitsch et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

                History
                : 10 January 2014
                : 10 January 2014
                Categories
                Commentary

                Medicine
                trend societal and environmental determinants,extreme obesity,children and adolescents,obesity,prevalence

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