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      Principles of confounder selection

      research-article
      European Journal of Epidemiology
      Springer Netherlands
      Confounder, Causal inference, Collider, Covariate adjustment, Selection

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          Abstract

          Selecting an appropriate set of confounders for which to control is critical for reliable causal inference. Recent theoretical and methodological developments have helped clarify a number of principles of confounder selection. When complete knowledge of a causal diagram relating all covariates to each other is available, graphical rules can be used to make decisions about covariate control. Unfortunately, such complete knowledge is often unavailable. This paper puts forward a practical approach to confounder selection decisions when the somewhat less stringent assumption is made that knowledge is available for each covariate whether it is a cause of the exposure, and whether it is a cause of the outcome. Based on recent theoretically justified developments in the causal inference literature, the following proposal is made for covariate control decisions: control for each covariate that is a cause of the exposure, or of the outcome, or of both; exclude from this set any variable known to be an instrumental variable; and include as a covariate any proxy for an unmeasured variable that is a common cause of both the exposure and the outcome. Various principles of confounder selection are then further related to statistical covariate selection methods.

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          Most cited references36

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          Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Under Exogeneity: A Review

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            High-dimensional propensity score adjustment in studies of treatment effects using health care claims data.

            Adjusting for large numbers of covariates ascertained from patients' health care claims data may improve control of confounding, as these variables may collectively be proxies for unobserved factors. Here, we develop and test an algorithm that empirically identifies candidate covariates, prioritizes covariates, and integrates them into a propensity-score-based confounder adjustment model. We developed a multistep algorithm to implement high-dimensional proxy adjustment in claims data. Steps include (1) identifying data dimensions, eg, diagnoses, procedures, and medications; (2) empirically identifying candidate covariates; (3) assessing recurrence of codes; (4) prioritizing covariates; (5) selecting covariates for adjustment; (6) estimating the exposure propensity score; and (7) estimating an outcome model. This algorithm was tested in Medicare claims data, including a study on the effect of Cox-2 inhibitors on reduced gastric toxicity compared with nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). In a population of 49,653 new users of Cox-2 inhibitors or nonselective NSAIDs, a crude relative risk (RR) for upper GI toxicity (RR = 1.09 [95% confidence interval = 0.91-1.30]) was initially observed. Adjusting for 15 predefined covariates resulted in a possible gastroprotective effect (0.94 [0.78-1.12]). A gastroprotective effect became stronger when adjusting for an additional 500 algorithm-derived covariates (0.88 [0.73-1.06]). Results of a study on the effect of statin on reduced mortality were similar. Using the algorithm adjustment confirmed a null finding between influenza vaccination and hip fracture (1.02 [0.85-1.21]). In typical pharmacoepidemiologic studies, the proposed high-dimensional propensity score resulted in improved effect estimates compared with adjustment limited to predefined covariates, when benchmarked against results expected from randomized trials.
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              Illustrating bias due to conditioning on a collider.

              That conditioning on a common effect of exposure and outcome may cause selection, or collider-stratification, bias is not intuitive. We provide two hypothetical examples to convey concepts underlying bias due to conditioning on a collider. In the first example, fever is a common effect of influenza and consumption of a tainted egg-salad sandwich. In the second example, case-status is a common effect of a genotype and an environmental factor. In both examples, conditioning on the common effect imparts an association between two otherwise independent variables; we call this selection bias.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                tvanderw@hsph.harvard.edu
                Journal
                Eur J Epidemiol
                Eur. J. Epidemiol
                European Journal of Epidemiology
                Springer Netherlands (Dordrecht )
                0393-2990
                1573-7284
                6 March 2019
                6 March 2019
                2019
                : 34
                : 3
                : 211-219
                Affiliations
                ISNI 000000041936754X, GRID grid.38142.3c, Department of Epidemiology, , Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, ; 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115 USA
                Article
                494
                10.1007/s10654-019-00494-6
                6447501
                30840181
                18512426-7821-4dc7-9f63-7f9e986ad0a9
                © The Author(s) 2019

                Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011541, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute;
                Award ID: R01CA222147
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Essay
                Custom metadata
                © Springer Nature B.V. 2019

                Public health
                confounder,causal inference,collider,covariate adjustment,selection
                Public health
                confounder, causal inference, collider, covariate adjustment, selection

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