15
views
0
recommends
+1 Recommend
1 collections
    0
    shares
      • Record: found
      • Abstract: found
      • Article: found
      Is Open Access

      Regimes Inflacionários e Ciclos Econômicos: A Experiência Brasileira Pós-Plano Real

      research-article
      ,
      Revista Brasileira de Economia
      Fundação Getúlio Vargas
      Inflação, incerteza, ciclos econômicos, cadeias de Markov

      Read this article at

      Bookmark
          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          Resumo Este artigo avalia a dinâmica da inflação brasileira entre 1995 e 2016. Com modelos markovianos, derivam-se medidas de incertezas associadas ao regime inflacionário e aos choques aleatórios do período. Os resultados revelam que o nível e a variabilidade da inflação se reduziram após a adoção do sistema de metas para inflação. No mesmo período, também se observaram quedas nas incertezas relacionadas à condução da política monetária, com exceção do pós-2015, quando a inflação se acelerou e as instabilidades se elevaram consideravelmente. Mostra-se que choques nas incertezas advindas das políticas do banco central impactam negativamente a produção, o consumo e o investimento no país.

          Translated abstract

          Abstract This paper analyzes the dynamics of Brazilian inflation between 1995 and 2016. By estimating Markovian models, we derive measures of uncertainties related to changes in monetary policy (regime uncertainty) and to random shocks (certainty equivalent). Our results show that the level and variability of inflation have reduced after the adoption of inflation targeting. In the same period, there were declines in regime uncertainties, with the exception of 2015 onwards, when inflation exceeded its upper limit and instabilities rose abruptly. It is also found that impulses in regime uncertainty impacts negatively production, consumption, and investment in the country.

          Related collections

          Most cited references28

          • Record: found
          • Abstract: not found
          • Article: not found

          A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle

            Bookmark
            • Record: found
            • Abstract: not found
            • Article: not found

            Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation

              Bookmark
              • Record: found
              • Abstract: not found
              • Article: not found

              Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections

                Bookmark

                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Journal
                rbe
                Revista Brasileira de Economia
                Rev. Bras. Econ.
                Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil )
                0034-7140
                1806-9134
                December 2018
                : 72
                : 4
                : 410-428
                Affiliations
                [1] Governador Valadares Minas Gerais orgnameUniversidade Federal de Juiz de Fora orgdiv1Departamento de Economia Brazil
                Article
                S0034-71402018000400410
                10.5935/0034-7140.20180020
                18a37fbc-ca24-4e0c-8a1e-9434d80f5284

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

                History
                : 15 August 2017
                : 28 April 2018
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 32, Pages: 19
                Product

                SciELO Brazil

                Categories
                Artigo

                incerteza,cadeias de Markov,ciclos econômicos,Inflação

                Comments

                Comment on this article